War Now or War Later

 

War Now or War Later

Is a Full-on War Between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah Inevitable?

Iran claims its Hezbollah surrogates in southern Lebanon are capable of launching 1,500 missiles a day into Israel. And with Israel unable to keep its pledge completely to destroy Hamas in Gaza, with the growing global unpopularity of the Jewish state, there is increasing pressure in both Lebanon and Israel for a real war, well beyond the Hezbollah pattern of missile strikes into Israel, and the latter’s counter strikes with missile, artillery and airstrikes.

According to Orla Guerin, writing for the July 17th BBC, “The current tit-for-tat has already driven tens of thousands from their homes - more than 90,000 in Lebanon and about 60,000 in Israel. Further inland, the father of a paramedic killed by an Israeli strike tells us there is no hope of peace. In Beirut, at the funeral of one of Hezbollah’s most senior commanders killed by Israel, a mourner declares: ‘We are longing for an all-out war.’" As illustrated by the first direct attack by Israel fighters against Iran this past April, and the limited Iranian retaliation, it seems clear that Iran and Israel both prefer if Iran were to rely on its surrogates. And unlike Hamas, which is a Sunni state (literal interpreters of the Qur-an), Iran and Hezbollah, the latter a major political party (literally, “the party of God”) in Lebanon, are both Muslim Shiites (where only the holiest of the holy can interpret the Qur’an).

While military targets are in theory the focus of both sides in the Hezbollah conflict, there have been way too many civilian casualties on both sides. And instead of diffusing the conflict, reducing the temperature of the exchanges, this back and forth only seems to have enraged both, each wanting to ramp up death and destruction against the other, at some point, with no holds barred. Guerin reports from the southern Lebanese city of Tyre (using first names):

“Explosions are part of the sound of summer 2024 in the ancient Lebanese city of Tyre, as Hezbollah and Israel exchange fire across the border 25 kilometres (15 miles) away… ‘Another day, another bomb,’ says Roland, 49, with a shrug, as he relaxes on a lilo [a comfortable lounge chair]. He lives abroad but is back home on holiday… ‘We got used to it somehow over the months,’ says his friend Mustafa, 39, ‘though children are still a little bit scared.’ He nods towards his daughter Miral, 7, who is dripping wet from the pool… ‘When she hears an explosion, she always asks, ‘will there be a bomb now?’ ’he says… Sunbathers look-on as Israeli strikes happen in the distance

“Earlier this month, there was a massive blast in his neighbourhood in Tyre, as his family of four were having a meal. Israel had assassinated a senior Hezbollah commander, Mohammed Nimah Nasser… ‘We heard the noise,’ Mustafa says, ‘and we carried on eating.’ … But the sunbathers on the beach in Tyre may be on borrowed time. This city will be in the firing line in the event of all-out war, along with the rest of southern Lebanon, a Hezbollah stronghold… We are now at the water’s edge of a potentially devastating war which both sides say they don’t want. Iran doesn’t seem to want it either…. Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has stressed the armed group is ready, but not eager, for war. He says if there is a ceasefire agreed in Gaza, Hezbollah will cease fire too, immediately… Will that satisfy Israel? Maybe not.”

Reporting from northern Israel, near the border, the BBC’s Lucy Williamson (writing on June 22nd) tells us about the other side: “Full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah would be ‘a catastrophe’, the UN Secretary-General says. But to David Kamari, who lives under near-daily fire on the Israeli side of the border, it would be a solution… Last month, a Hezbollah rocket fired from Lebanon landed in his front garden in the border town of Kiryat Shmona, cracking his house in several places and filling it with rubble… He points out the gaping holes where shrapnel sliced through the walls, missing him by inches. And then to the hills above us, where Hezbollah-controlled territory begins.

“‘Every day, every night: bombs. [It’s a] problem,’ he said. ‘And I was born here. If you live here one night, you go crazy.’… David is still living in his rubble-filled house, pieces of shrapnel entangled with the remains of his television set. Outside is the blackened relic of his car, burned by the fire that swept through his front yard after the rocket hit… Most of the population of Kiryat Shmona was evacuated after the 7 October Hamas attacks, as Hezbollah rockets began raining down in support of their Palestinian ally… David is one of the few who stayed. ‘I’ve lived here 71 years,’ he said. ‘I won’t go. I was in the army, I’m not afraid.’… His solution? ‘War with Hezbollah; kill Hezbollah,’ he says.”

Politics plays heavily into the underlying decisions. Even as he has supplied Israel with a continued flow of munitions, Biden has tried to convince Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu (whose popularity in Israel is sinking fast) to continue towards that cherished ceasefire with Hamas. Neither Israel nor Hamas seems to care about the tens of thousands of civilians Palestinians who have perished in the conflict. But Donald Trump is highly regarded as a very good ally of Israel’s rightwing – Netanyahu and Trump were pictured on political posters in Israel – as encapsulated in his dark message to Netanyahu earlier this year: “Finish it!” Nevertheless, the winds favoring that ceasefire are blowing in the right direction. To some, that is a solution; to others, it simply delays an inevitable full-on war between Hezbollah (beyond southern Lebanon?) and Israel.

I’m Peter Dekom, and while a Trump victory in November may spell the end of US support for a desperate Ukraine, it might also spur Israel to attack Hezbollah and “get it over with.”