Hardly a Gaza Célèbre – Iran’s Surrogates Smell Blood

 Iranian-made “kamikaze” Shahed-136 drone

Expensive US Expensive US surveillance/attack drones, carrier launched

As US Naval commanders return to their home ports from Red Sea patrols, they report that they experienced the highest level of attacks in their military careers. Increasingly sophisticated Iranian-made missiles and drones, seemingly in unlimited supply, are making one of the major shipping lanes from Asia and Africa – from the Red Sea through the Suez Canal to Europe – living hell. Major cargo traffic in the Red Sea is down by almost half. The Iran-backed Yemeni Houthis are having field day. What started out as a targeted attack focused on shipping with links to Israel has widened to embrace an ever-increasing attack on all cargo shipping with a heavy emphasis on attacking the US and other nations’ warships sent to protect that flow.

The increased sophistication of armed drones combined with economies of scale have made these little demons the modern functional equivalent of the lower-tech guerilla wars that have given military underdogs repeated claims of “victory” over American forces. Even Israel’s missile barrier – a complex combination of early warning radar and pinpoint anti-missile/drone missiles known as the Iron Dome – can be overwhelmed if a large enough swarm of missiles and drones are fired again her at the same time. Military tactics have changed radically as a result, and as a result, the advantage is not always to the bigger and more powerful nation. We just may need a lot of our own down-and-dirty cheap “kamikaze” drones to respond in kind.

As the July 19th New York Times reported, “In a rare breach of Israel’s multilayered air-defense system, a drone fired by the Houthi militia in Yemen slammed into an apartment building near the United States Embassy branch office in Tel Aviv early Friday [7/19], killing at least one person and wounding eight others.” Except as noted below, Iran has mostly eschewed direct attacks against Israeli targets. With Iran’s assistance, its surrogates have also gained ground in manufacturing their own drones.

Lest we think our protective fleet is simply accepted as a force for good, merely protecting vital international shipping lanes, Iran and her surrogate armies (like Hamas in Gaza, Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, etc.) view Israel as the US’ regional instrumentality in the Middle East; they tend to treat the United States and Israel as a single entity. A sizeable portion of Israel’s weapon systems and munitions are indeed obviously American sourced.

There is also no doubt that, despite its arrogant hardline, Israel’s local wars are slowly weakening that country. In fact, it is precisely this arrogant use of massive overkill in Gaza – having claimed well over 40,000 lives (mostly innocent civilians) – that has made Israel a pariah to most of the rest of the world. Indictments issued in June by the International Court of Justice against leaders of both Israel and Hamas – including against Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu himself (who recently met with President Biden and addressed a joint session of Congress pursuant to an invitation from the Republican House Speaker) – have most certainly made that global perception much more negative… and much more indicative of the US role in this mess.

Also, as I detailed in my July 23rd War Now or War Later blog, the never-ending missile/ artillery/drone exchange between Lebanon’s Hezbollah forces, well-supplied and financed by Iran, and the Israeli Defense Force, seems to be heading towards an all-out war between them. But there seems to be a larger, more general movement towards an even much broader war in the Middle East, as Iran is feeling her oats. Iran has become a major supplier of drones to Moscow and is fiercely proud of its rising and very efficient manufacturing technology of military hardware. The July 23rd Wall Street Journal explains as Iran’s boldness seems to be accelerating:

“Iran-allied factions—including the Iraq-based Popular Mobilization Forces and the Houthis—have all targeted Tel Aviv since Israel invaded Gaza following the Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7. But these attacks had failed until now, forcing the militants to focus their efforts elsewhere.

“The Baghdad militias struck U.S. troops in Iraq over Washington’s support of Israel, until they were forced to dial down over the killing of two American servicemen in Jordan. Meanwhile, the Houthis, whose volley of cruise missiles last October was shot down by a U.S. warship in the Red Sea, decided instead to strike at Israeli-connected vessels crossing through the sea. Since then, the group has attacked dozens of ships.

“Tehran has generally avoided directly striking Israel—except, notably, in April when it launched more than 300 missiles and drones after a suspected Israeli strike killed a group of Iranian officers in Damascus. Israel responded with a limited strike on Iran, and Iranian officials said they considered the matter closed. But the Islamic Republic [Iran] has been arming the Houthis and other allies who have shown much less caution. Weapons experts say the drone used in the attack on Tel Aviv appeared to be a relatively recent, powerful engine manufactured in Iran.

“Meanwhile, Lebanon’s Hezbollah has pounded Israel, forcing the government to order the evacuation of areas on the countries' border. That led the Israeli military last month to approve a plan for a possible invasion of its northern neighbor. The operation would need approval from the Israeli government which has refrained so far from opening a new active land operation beyond Gaza.” If all this sounds dire and desperate, it is. Even as Hamas and Israel near the possibility of a limited ceasefire in exchange for the release of the remaining October 7th hostages, the long-term prognosis for a peaceful future in this entire regional conflict is beyond bleak.

I’m Peter Dekom, and even as MAGA Republicans champion pulling back the United States from military conflicts far from our shores, they seem ignore their own platform by increasing the linkage between the US and Israel, which of necessity will place the US deeper into this otherwise violent and endless litany of regional wars.