A severe drought; esp. a drought lasting many years, whose persistence, extent, or severity exceed those of a typical drought within the historical record.
Oxford English Dictionary (generally more than two decades)
No surprises here. We knew this in 2021: In a macro view, the last 25 years in the western United States have been the driest in 1,200 years, a nasty statistic that has been replicated in large sections of the planet. Despite recent rains “out West,” the region has been pummeled by decimated forests (where dry brush has ignited millions and millions of acres that once served as carbon dioxide-to-oxygen transfer machines), some of the most productive land in the world has been rendered fallow for lack of water, aquifers and well water are disappearing without replacement, available fresh water for agriculture and daily direct human use, hydroelectric power generation is falling just as air conditioning use is rising.
Yet if those recent rains repeat and sustain themselves over the next few years, we could at least say – technically – that the megadrought in the West has ended… but the longer-term perspective might still produce more of what we’ve seen in the last several years, where those rains have only grown more brush to serve as kindling for the kinds of mega-wildfires that have redefined the region. Trust me, fire and flood insurance is disappearing or reaching exorbitant price levels in “natural disaster” sensitive areas across the United States, from hurricane alley in the South to the coast erosion particularly obvious on our shorelines and the firebox that seems to have enveloped the West. And that “natural disaster” map is getting increasingly larger all the time.
There are no real shortcuts to deal with this life-killing result from our inability/unwillingness to address containing and reversing climate change at a level necessary to sustain life. And no, artificial turf is NOT good for the environment, creating untenable holders of heat, releasing tons of toxins into the air (including more than their share of “forever” microplastics); we need to use less water, stop using fossil fuels for much of anything, accelerate the use of alternative energy and begin deploying carbon removal from the environment. And further no, those seeking to reach these necessary levels of safety are not the perpetrators of “the great green scam.” Shall we drill down on the supporting facts? Ian James, writing for the August 8th Los Angeles Times, takes on this fact-finding journey with a focus on America fruit and vegetable capital, California:
“Now, a UCLA climate scientist has reexamined the data and found that, even after two wet winters, the last 25 years are still likely the driest quarter-century since the year 800… ‘The dryness still wins out over the wetness, big time,’ UCLA professor Park Williams said.
“The latest climate data show that the years since 2000 in western North America — from Montana to California to northern Mexico — have been slightly drier on average than a similar megadrought in the late 1500s… Williams shared his findings with The Times, providing an update to his widely cited 2022 study, which he co-authored with scientists at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory… The new findings reveal that even the unusually wet conditions that drenched the West since the start of 2023 pale in comparison to the long stretch of mostly dry years over the previous 23 years.
“And that dryness hasn’t been driven by natural cycles alone. Williams and his colleagues have estimated that a significant portion of the drought’s severity — roughly 40% — is attributable to warming driven by the burning of fossil fuels and rising levels of greenhouse gases. The warming that has occurred in the region, an increase of more than 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit since recordkeeping began more than a century ago, has intensified the dry conditions, making the latest megadrought significantly more severe than it would be without climate change.”
With those unable to afford air conditioning, especially the elderly, the numbers of heat-related deaths are soaring. For those working outside, the medical profession has warned that preparing your body for sustained hot weather outdoor work is more than using sunblock and a shady hat. 70% of heat-related fatalities for those who have not gradually acclimatized their bodies (particularly their perspiration reflexes) to the new hot environment occur in the first week of that employment.
Even office attire is beginning to succumb to a revised dress code, even where they have AC, as the August 4th Wall Street Journal has noted: “Now, the increasing frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves have more professionals donning shorts on weekdays. Proponents argue that what people wear shouldn’t matter as long as they are productive… ‘If it’s blazing hot and I don’t have to be at an event or in meetings, I’ll wear shorts,’ said Chris Barca, communications director for the Queens borough president in New York City. Barca, 33 years old, started wearing knee-length neat shorts to the office last summer and has donned them four or five times so far this season. ‘If it’s 98 degrees outside, it should be OK to prioritize someone’s comfort,’ Barca said.”
And we thought losing the tie was a big change in office dress codes! If the obvious misery of sustained heatwaves has not changed the minds of climate change deniers, maybe a little heatstroke or a few dead relatives might produce that necessary “oh…” Many of us will be forced to adapt… or…
I’m Peter Dekom, and if you’ll pardon a reworking of a famous George Santayana quote: “Those who deny or reject serious facts are condemned to be subjected to their own stubborn ignorance.”
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