Ungovernable – A Perfect Opportunity for a Rising Dictator

 

Ungovernable – A Perfect Opportunity for a Rising Dictator

For Starters, 81-85% of Registered Republicans Still Back Trump

“Let me be very clear: There is no rift in the Republican Party… Donald Trump has had an iron grip on that Republican base for a long period of time, and it is the same iron grip that he had six months ago… Every so often, people are trying to say, ‘Oh, I spot these little rifts in the Republican base. Oh, oh, you know, they’re finally starting to break. They’re starting to break from Donald Trump.’ It ain’t happening.”

 CNN’s chief data analyst, Harry Enten, mid-January

If you read, listen to or watch mass media, Trump’s approval levels are under water in every major policy category, including brutal immigration program, efforts to take foreign territory (by economic or military force), an open declaration of war on Democrats (particularly vocal opponents), even ordinary protestors – using federal enforcement agencies (like ICE), the entire Department of Justice as his personal law firm with a retribution mandate, even the threat of using the military against civilians – high consumer prices, and the dreaded Epstein papers which have been delayed and covered up by his DOJ via massive redactions and petitions for delay against a clearly passed statute to the contrary. Any objective observer would count Trump and his supporters out as the midterms loom in November. But there seems to be a terrifying and fascinating socio-cultural explanation… that suggests otherwise.

While there are issues where “some” MAGA dissent is accepted – notably on the Epstein papers and moving to annex Greenland – Trump’s MAGA core remains fiercely loyal to him. There is even a hint of glee at Trump’s hardline against “woke” and “weak” Europe and his aggressive use of tariffs to force the rest of the world to heel. Whines from both sides of the aisle in Congress that Trump has usurped Congress’ Article I (of the US Constitution) power to set taxes and tariffs and declare war (with several supporting statutes), are often met with a smug arrogant MAGA disdain for the elites in Congress. 2020 “stolen election” conspiracies are rising once again. Even rumors that Europe is beginning to explore Chinese military hardware, to replace a mercurial and unstable United States reconfigured by Donald Trump, do not seem to faze MAGA voters.

Trump’s opponents, who see the fall of his hold on his base, consistently point to cracks in the uniformity of GOP support for all things Trump over a litany of issues. And that’s the problem with calling these cracks the beginning of the end of both Trumpism, and if there is a difference, the MAGA movement. But even where there is a new MAGA alternative – for example, represented by Majorie Taylor Greene’s support for “America First” – it’s about issues and not Trump himself. Trump represents an overwhelming cult of personality; Trump is the individual that MAGA, America First and the balance of the GOP have decided to follow with minimal challenge. While some Trumpers dislike his use of language and Tweet storms, wince at the scenes of ICE brutality against even US citizens, they see immigrants leaving and liberals being put in their place. Writing for January 13th Atlantic, Yair Rosenberg explains this surprisingly immutable loyalty:

“The theory of a MAGA rupture over Venezuela has a certain surface plausibility. It’s also completely contradicted by what masses of Trump’s backers are telling pollsters. Two days after the Maduro operation, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 65 percent of Republicans supported it, compared with just 6 percent who didn’t. Another poll, by The Washington Post, pegged that support at 74 percent. And a subsequent YouGov/CBS survey recorded even more striking results: 89 percent of Republicans backed Maduro’s ouster, and for self-described ‘MAGA Republicans,’ the number was 97 percent—a level of enthusiasm that would make even the election-rigging Maduro blush. Days after the [NY] Times quoted Bannon fretting about the GOP base’s alleged upset over Venezuela, the paper spoke to its own yearlong panel of Trump backers and reported, with characteristic understatement, that such ‘skepticism may not be shared by many rank-and-file Republican voters.’

“This sequence of events follows a familiar pattern. For months, major media outlets have run story after story about the alleged crack-up of Trump’s MAGA base, sourced to a specific set of elite right-wing influencers. These accounts have been widely shared and celebrated by liberal readers and pundits. And yet for months, that crack-up has failed to meaningfully materialize in polls and focus groups, and the allegations of MAGA infighting have borne little resemblance to the real-world trajectory of conservative politics, where Trump still reigns supreme.” The notion of “America strong” and governed from old world values (think of the Old West), enforces Trump’s aggressive moves against Greenland as positive. Even statistics reporting that since Trump’s reelection, higher costs have added over $1,600 to the average American family’s budget (CNN, January 20th), has failed to shake that MAGA loyalty.

Notwithstanding that voters as a whole register a 58% overall disapproval of Trump and his policies, the concentration of independents and Democrats representing that such statistics do not negate either red/blue state traditions or the fact that they have little or no sway over GOP primaries. And without Trump support at that primary level, most Republicans know that they cannot even rise to compete in a general election. And while a bipartisan congressional contingent traveled to Copenhagen, Denmark to assuage them that the US will not invade Greenland and there is no Western support for such an American annexation, the only voice that matters is a President slighted at not winning the Nobel Peace Prize.

Some of the Silicon Valley oligarchs who couldn’t donate enough, even supporting inane causes like a completely vanity-driven new White House ballroom to ensure favorable government approvals, lucrative federal contracts and minimal regulation over their treasure artificial intelligence initiatives… are facing pushback from their own employees. FastCompany.com’s editorial head, Harry McCracken, observed some changes in these traditional GOP-friendly companies in his January 16th article: “The [tech] industry’s failure to mount the modest level of public pushback we saw during Trump 1.0 is not exactly a mystery. This time, the president and his appointees’ increased eagerness to use levers such as tariffs, antitrust approvals, Federal Communications Commission policy, and plain old lawsuits creates an even starker imbalance of power with companies that cross him. The emergence of generative AI as tech’s next big thing is another factor: Executives who want to influence federal policy, such as its AI Action Plan, have every incentive to avoid ticking off the president on other fronts.

“Tech giants may have concluded that their current approach to dealing with the administration—playing nice where tenable and ignoring one disaster after another—is working for them. It certainly seems to be working for Trump. But in the wake of the disaster unfolding in Minneapolis, there are signs the uneasy status quo might be slipping…

“CEOs of Big Tech companies, who have grown less accommodating of employee activism, may not be swayed by worker petitions. Brushing off their customers’ concerns is riskier. Unlike the business community, the American public doesn’t seem to be compartmentalizing its assessment of Trump. The president’s polling collapse has him underwater even on those issues he has embraced most tightly, including immigration, trade, and the economy.

“After so many years of playing to—in New York Times TV columnist James Poniewozik’s words—an audience of one, the tech industry might be slow to decide that the reputational damage is no longer worth it. At some point, however, even targeted buddying up to Trump could be intolerable to consumers, who have powerful ways to register their displeasure. One relevant data point: After Disney briefly pulled ABC’s Jimmy Kimmel off the air in September, seemingly at the behest of FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr, cancellations of Disney+ and Hulu reportedly doubled.” Even Europe seems ready to stop appeasing and push back, at least ending the era of worthless Trump flattery. Could all this be way too little, way too late… and does Trump even care anymore?

I’m Peter Dekom, and appeasement of an autocrat, even when based on self-interest no matter the consequences, never ever works to generate the expected benefits even in the medium term.