"Military Moron" or "Stable Genius" – America’s Iran Report Card to Date

“Military Moron” or “Stable Genius” – America’s Iran Report Card to Date

Each of the United States and Iran claim victory; which side is more credible?

Democratic Senate Minority Leader, Chuck Schumer, noting that we are much worse off than we were before Trump’s unilaterally declared WAR, opts for the former descriptor. Trump, noting that we have kneecapped Iran’s main military assets, claims the latter (which he has repeatedly used to label himself). Hard to imagine Trump’s threat to annihilate Persian civilization (back to the “stone ages”) while simultaneously making a White House appearance with the Easter

Bunny. Assuming we are in a ceasefire that holds – a huge assumption – let’s look at the facts:

The United States: Allies supporting Trump’s WAR: Israel and perhaps Persian Gulf nations (e.g., oil producers like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the Emirates, Kuwait that must use the Strait of Hormuz to export oil) which have been attacked by Iran as supporters of regional US military installations. While NATO (a defensive and not an offensive pact) allies are willing to chip in to stabilize the Gulf region once there is peace, some NATO allies have refused to allow the US to use their airspace or local US bases to launch attacks on Iran. No Western allies have offered direct involvement in what is uniformly viewed as Trump’s WAR. Trump relied almost entirely on highly biased Israeli intelligence, ignoring his own US intelligence assessments, in deciding to join Israel in an all-out WAR on Iran.

What the US has accomplished, noting that before the WAR, oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz moved through that waterway, unimpeded: Since, the few ships that have passed through that navigation chokepoint have been Iranian vessels and those of approved Iranian allies? As of this writing the Strait is closed, and Iran refuses to share control over passage with the US. The US has so far been unable to open the Strait against Iran’s complete control.

The question as to whether Lebanon was part of the ceasefire is hotly contested as Israel continues to pound that neighboring country without mercy.

The price of oil and gas has skyrocketed globally, and the destruction wreaked by the US and Israel suggest longer-term high prices on those commodities, with no immediate relief no matter what happens. The trickle-down effect has also embraced the cost of shipping and travel accordingly.

As the US continues to maintain that they won this combat because Iran’s mainstream military has been decimated into subservient helplessness. Yet even without a traditional air force or navy, US military assets are still at risk to Iran’s cache of missiles and mines as well as its ample supply of asymmetrical weapons of choice: drones. As the US touts its overall tactical triumphs, it seems to have failed in achieving any of its constantly changing meaningful goals.

Iran: Allies: Iraq (the fellow Shiite neighbor), Iran’s regional surrogates (like Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas, etc.), China (which seems to be providing Iran with satellite intelligence), Russia (having no difficulty sending cheap drones to Tehran) and joyously selling its oil freely to finance its invasion of Ukraine, with allied intermediaries like Oman and Pakistan helping to communicate with the United States. Russia may be the biggest winner of Trump’s failed initiatives.

The only “regime change” I have seen is a move of the same “death to America” theocracy from hardline leadership to ultra-hardline leadership. With the elder Khamenei dead, his son-successor does not have the clout to assume the control he probably hoped for, putting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps at the top of Iranian governance. Resuming executions of arrested civilian protestors and having no problem spraying bullets into the few Iranians still willing to protest, suggests that an unarmed public has no chance to topple their repressive government. Message: killing civilians and destroying civilian infrastructure will never move us to yield or surrender, because God is on our side. Huh, that’s Hegseth’s line. Don’t believe us? Then why can a “destroyed nation,” as Trump calls it, shoot down American jets and still totally control the Strait of Hormuz, wreaking total havoc on the global oil market?

While Iran will never convince the US to pay reparations for the damage we caused, the exceptionally high and rising value of Iranian oil plus the probable ability for Tehran to charge ships seven figure tolls to pass the Strait, are still gifts to Iran. And as much as big-mouthed Pete “Still Searching for Competence” Hegseth continues to state US forces can get control over remaining stores of fissionable material at any time, that nuclear ingredient is still under Iranian control.

Strange that the only metrics that impact American citizens directly are those that hit our pocketbooks, our international power and influence and our ability to use the international marketplace to our advantage as we always did… until… Under those parameters, our grade to date is an F, while Iran merits a C+ just for surviving and remaining in control. Will JD Vance be able to generate some benefits in his direct negotiations with Iran under the aegis of Pakistani mediators? Trump and his family negotiators haven’t made any difference, Netanyahu has only made matters worse, so who knows? But, as Julia Ioffe, writing for the April 9th Puck.com, notes: “After six weeks of bellicosity in Iran, the Islamic Republic is richer, more entrenched, and newly in control of the Strait of Hormuz.”

I’m Peter Dekom, and a cultural and historical illiterate, who loves to shoot from the hip and trust autocrats he likes over his own experts, is no match for the obstacles Trump must overcome to undo his mess.