What Now Given China’s Rapid Ascent?

What Now Given China’s Rapid Ascent?

“Blessed are the peacemakers! But woe to those who manipulate religion and the very name of God for their own military, economic and political gain, dragging that which is sacred into darkness and filth.” 

Pope Leo XIV, on April 16th in Bamenda, Cameroon.

What totally amazes me is how utterly blind and tone deaf so much of this country is, particularly Trump world, pretending that Trump’s ever-changing goals are achievable, that we had any shot to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without China’s assistance, that the worst American military leader in our history is doing a great job banging Iran into submission, that Americans totally back Trump’s huge military budget to expand and enhance existing strategies that couldn’t even force a decimated Iran to surrender and that Americans are willing to sacrifice their medical benefits, support continued tax cuts for the rich and absorb higher prices for Trump’s bizarre national goals. Further, while most of MAGA does not care about Trump’s “Pope-baiting,” independents are either angry or baffled by that Trumpian practice.

Having wasted billions and billions of dollars of our sophisticated munitions on a losing cause, somehow too many Americans still believe that China cannot match our military might… that Trump’s “bully first” approach is unstoppable. As we build massive and super-expensive aircraft carriers ($15B/each and rising fast, just for the boat without crew, aircraft or support ships), we get pummeled by simple drones, basic mines and watch China rebuild its nuclear arsenal to modern specifications, learning the lessons of war from Ukraine and Iran and building accordingly.

Back in the 1990s, after the Soviet Union had collapsed, we began to build the fastest, deepest diving super-submarines – the new Seawolf class. But they were so damned expensive, we only built three such subs before abandoning further construction in favor of the vastly less expensive Virginia class sub, a nice boat but nothing like the superior Seawolf class vessel.

We have a stronger navy, with a whole lot of bigger ships than China. They have more vessels, hardly anything comparable to our nuclear carriers, but theirs are nimble and most are more modern with some surprising new capacities. To make that point, China seems to have developed an upgraded version of our discontinued Seawolf class subs: ““An initial surprise is that the Type 095 is, despite always expected to be a larger boat, not longer than the preceding Type 093 Shang-class. In fact it may be slightly shorter. Yet it is noticeably wider, with the beam increased to around 12 meters from around 11 meters. This makes it almost the same size as the Seawolf-class.

“While there is no suggestion that it is a straight copy of the American design, there is some sense in these new dimensions; there was a hydrodynamic logic in Seawolf’s specifications. Like a whale or other marine creature there is an optimum length-to-beam ratio which optimizes drag and allows the creature to go faster, or use less energy. Counter-intuitively the shorter-fatter Seawolf has a much more efficient hull design than the later, more compromised, Virginia-class.” NavalNews.com. Oh my. And for some reason, Trump believes that Americans want a 50% increase in our “defense budget,” not remotely acknowledging the rising citizen antipathy to that.

“An effort to ramp up U.S. weapons production and build more ships, planes and drones will require a massive upfront investment, President Trump’s budget director told a House committee Wednesday [4/15]… The testimony from Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought jump-starts the White House’s push to increase defense spending to nearly $1.5 trillion in the next budget year , up from nearly $1 trillion this year, while cutting health research, heating assistance and scores of other domestic programs by about 10% overall. Such cuts do not cover mandatory spending, which includes such programs as Social Security and Medicare… ‘For the industrial base to double or triple and build more facilities, not just add shifts, it requires multiyear agreements to purchase into the future,’ Vought told lawmakers. ‘That cost has to be booked in this first year.’” Kevin Freking, writing for the April 17th Associated Press. Bark, bark!

And we still think we can force Iran to surrender with the financial equivalent of continuous bombing. “The U.S. military has widened its efforts beyond the blockade of Iran’s ports to allow its forces around the world to stop any ship tied to Tehran or those suspected of carrying supplies that could help its government, including weapons, oil, metals and electronics.

“Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, specifically pointed to operations in the Pacific, saying the U.S. would be targeting vessels that left before the blockade began this week outside the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for energy and other shipments… U.S. forces in other areas of responsibility ‘will actively pursue any Iranian-flagged vessel or any vessel attempting to provide material support to Iran,’ he told reporters at the Pentagon.” Konstantin Toropin, Ben Finley and David Klepper writing for the April 17th Associated Press

“If the U.S. and Iran aren’t able to soon come to a deal to end the war or extend the ceasefire that expires next week, the Trump administration is setting the stage to shift its war campaign toward a more economic-focused effort aimed at choking Tehran into submission rather than relying on bombs alone… Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters at a White House briefing Wednesday that the U.S. plans to ramp up economic pain on Iran, and said the new moves will be the ‘financial equivalent’ of a bombing campaign. …

“Bessent said the administration has ‘told companies, we have told countries that if you are buying Iranian oil, that if Iranian money is sitting in your banks, we are now willing to apply secondary sanctions, which is a very stern measure. And the Iranians should know that this is going to be the financial equivalent of what we saw in the kinetic activities.’” Fatima Hussein, Aamer Madhani, Will Weissert and Seung Min Kim writing for the April 17th Associated Press.

As Trump has destroyed any competitive hope for US carmakers, he sure as hell has boosted China’s competitive edge. “The U.S. is the world’s top oil producer and has pushed liquefied natural gas. The American approach — summed up by Trump as ‘drill, baby, drill’ — favors fossil fuels over renewables… Markets were witnessing a ‘bifurcation’ before the war, [energy expert Sam] Reynolds said, with the superpowers pushing very different energy futures, leaving other countries with complex choices on which approach to back…

“The Iran war is driving demand for technology from China, whose exports of solar panels, batteries and electric cars had already hit a record of almost $22.3 billion in December. That was up about 47% from the year before, with much going to Southeast Asia and Europe, according to the think tank Ember… Investment in renewable power and battery storage — designed to save energy when the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing — is expected to increase in nations heavily dependent on energy imports, including European countries, according to the credit rating firm Fitch Ratings.” Chan Ho-him, Aniruddha Ghosal and Anton L. Delgado, writing for the Associated Press, April 17th.

We are relying on conspiracy theories, fabricated statistics and false narratives to convince ourselves that continuing archaic strategies and bully tactics will keep the United States as the top dog in global influence, military power and economic dominance… even as the rest of the world is doing everything it can to prevent that toxic hegemony.

I’m Peter Dekom, and like it or not, China is in the adjacent passing lane, already accelerating into the top spot.