Guns and Polls

The General Social Survey (GSS) has been operating since 1972 to identify macro-trends in the United States, both to track domestic changes over time as well as to provide a basis for comparison with other countries. Their website notes: “The GSS is widely regarded as the single best source of data on societal trends. The 1972-2010 GSS has 5,416 variables, time-trends for 2,072 variables, and 268 trends having 20+ data points.” Whew! But what is really interesting in the post-Sandy Hook massacre era is the correlation between political beliefs and gun ownership, something GSS has been following for a very long time.

As you hear defenders of high-capacity magazines and assault weapons speak of the Second Amendment “intent” to give citizens the ability to overthrow the tyranny of their own government – hence the right to owning these killing machines cannot be abridged – you understand how this twisted assumption creates this self-righteous belief that owning military weapons trumps preventing an increasing litany of mass killings. Forget that this weaponry didn’t even exist in the late 1700s, so it hard to imbue our forefathers with an intent for us to be allowed to have them. These extreme views clearly represent a fairly severe, rightist perspective, and as American demographics change, this perspective is definitely on the wrong side of history.

Back to the issue of gun ownership and political beliefs. “Whether someone owns a gun is a more powerful predictor of a person’s political party than her gender, whether she identifies as gay or lesbian, whether she is Hispanic, whether she lives in the South or a number of other demographic characteristics.

“It will come as no surprise to those with a passing interest in American politics that Republicans are more likely to own guns than Democrats. But the differences have become much more stark in recent years, with gun ownership having become one of the clearest examples of the partisan polarization in the country over the last two decades… In 1973, about 55 percent of Republicans reported having a gun in their household against 45 percent of Democrats, according to the General Social Survey, a biennial poll of American adults… Gun ownership has declined over the past 40 years — but almost all of the decrease has come from Democrats. By 2010, according to the General Social Survey, the gun ownership rate among adults that identified as Democrats had fallen to 22 percent. It remained at about 50 percent among Republican adults.” New York Times, December 18^th.

Overall, what does American gun ownership look like? “Currently, there are an estimated 310 million privately held guns in the U.S., and 47 percent of Americans claim to own at least one firearm. There are 8.8 guns for every 10 people in the U.S. -- a higher level than in any other country in the world. The next closest is Yemen, which has 5.5 guns for every 10 people; then again, large swaths of Yemen are controlled by armed rebel groups, a factor that makes gun ownership especially necessary.

"The NRA and its corporate partners have more at stake in their fight for looser gun laws than the mere protection of a constitutional right. With an estimated $4 billion in annual sales, firearms are very big business… That big business, of course, means big money: Through its lobbying and campaign efforts, the NRA is generous with its largesse. In addition to its 4 million members -- a sizable voting bloc -- the NRA also has a lot of money to offer friendly candidates. In the 2012 election cycle, it contributed almost $19 million to political campaigns.” DailyFinance.com, December 19^th.

Want more numbers? Let’s look at some of the results of a 2008 poll (the last GSS poll to focus on gun ownership). Take education. As folks get more educated, they own fewer guns (Democrats: 41% with high school or less; 32-33% if they graduated college or went to grad school), but regardless of education, Republican gun ownership is higher at every level (59% with high school or less; 48% if they graduated college or went to grad school). Or race: White (37% Dems; 55% GOP), Black (17%/41%), Hispanic (28%/32%), Asian (5%/22%). Household income: Under $30K (20%/46%), $30K-$50k (29%/58%), $50K-$100K (30%/62%), Over $100K (27%/46%). Republican gun owners outnumber Democrats in urban areas two to one (40% to 20%). Gun ownership in rural areas is high in both parties (57%/65%). At younger legal ages – 18 to 29 – again gun ownership among Republicans is more than double than that among Democrats (24% to 53%), but the trend loses that multiple by ages 45-65 (34%/57%). Will Newtown change America’s perspective on gun control?

After recent mass shootings, guns sales immediately shot up. Sandy Hook is no exception: “In places like Colorado, Texas, Ohio and Oregon, local reports have noted a surge in gun purchases occurring immediately after the Sandy Hook tragedy…  The Sandy Hook shooting has ‘created a national shortage’ of firearms and ammunition, one Texas gun shop owner told CNBC, who asked not to be identified for fear of a backlash. ‘All of our suppliers are almost sold out of items across the board.’

“The person added that he expects gun sales in his establishment to see a jump of anywhere between 200 and 400 percent. ‘At a minimum we’ll double our sales from last year,’ he added… A representative for Colorado's Bureau of Investigation's (CBI) InstaCheck Unit told CNBC that firearms background check requests was in the throes of ‘record setting volume.’ The day following the Sandy Hook shooting the CBI received a one-day total of 4,154 requests — a new historical peak.” CNBC.com, December 18^th. People fear that gun control will take their guns away.

It is interesting to note how the “solutions” offered by conservative gun owners, who don’t want to give up their weapons, include focusing on arming teachers (yeah! More guns in schools!). “I wish to God she [a Sandy Hook teacher] had had an M-4 in her office, locked up so when she heard gunfire, she pulls it out ... and takes him out and takes his head off before he can kill those precious kids.” Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-Texas). “Tennessee has emerged this week as a center of the ‘the answer is more guns in schools’ sentiment following the Newtown, Conn. elementary school shooting…. A member of the Republican-controlled legislature plans during its upcoming session to introduce a bill that would allow the state to pay for secretly armed teachers in classrooms so, the sponsor told TPM, potential shooters don’t know who has a gun and who doesn’t.” TPM.com, December 18^th. Like teachers are always safe and sane, and no student would attempt to steal one of these weapons?

Or preventing those with mental illness from getting guns? Given the proclivity of more liberal folks to seek routine counseling from psychological professionals versus the path of deeply religious followers to seek religious counseling instead, I am seeing a big disconnect in the debate that will rage over the coming months. Does this include folks who went through marital counseling?

How long will it take Americans to forget about their outrage after the Sandy Hook killings? As long as it took to get over the Gifford shooting? Aurora? Virginia Tech? Etc. Etc. Until the next outrage? Hey, but we need those weapons if pro-gun conservatives – who still control the majority of governorships and seats in state legislatures – lose the voting power to an increasing liberal and ethnically diverse and need those weapons to overthrow the government?! 

I‘m Peter Dekom, and I am wondering whatever happened to “Thou shalt not kill”?