When the Going Gets Tough

Ultra-rightist nationalism is very often the response of a desperate nation after a prolonged period of plunged growth and economic torment. Hitler rose from the ashes of an inflation-decimated Germany, brought to its knees by the reparations forced upon it by the victorious European allies after World War I. Japan isn’t exactly in the same dire straits, but her last positive economic year was 1991, her economy was slammed not just by the current global economic downturn punctuated by the damage from a tsunami/nuclear meltdown, but by her own xenophobia (no immigration of any consequence) and inability to compete with the cheaper high tech manufactures of regional powerhouses like China, Taiwan and Korea. Remember when Sony Trinitron was the cat’s whiskers of high-quality televisions?

It’s so depressing to live in Japan that women are reproducing at one of the lowest rates around – 1.2 live births – much lower than the replacement number of 2.1. Her population is graying, with fewer younger workers around to support the massive flow of new retirees. By 2050, 40% of the population could be over 65 if current patterns continue, and it would take an extremely unlikely miracle of increased productivity to deal with this aging skew (plus rising global competition). In four decades, Japan’s overall population of 142 million is expected to hit 100 million. She’s engaged in a border dispute with the Peoples Republic of China over a couple of small islands, struggling with her national identity (which had always seen her culture as superior to the rest) and looking for longer term solutions.

With the latest elections in hand, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) ousted the Democratic Party (DPJ) after only three years in office, with former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe likely to return to the top job. But there’s still a bubbling cauldron of dissatisfaction that is moving an increasing number of Japanese voters towards desperate radical right, somewhat reminiscent of the forces that pushed Japan into WWII.

And while the radical right is not likely to achieve  a major parliamentary victory any time soon, there are firebrands in the wings, generating increasing levels of popularity, putting pressure even on mainstream politicos to move to the right. The most interesting, “fringe-for-now-but-growing” player in this field is probably too old (at eighty) to make a long-term difference, but his adherents and his new political party is finding nascent traction among an increasingly terrified Japanese body politic. “Shintaro Ishihara has been a rare, flamboyant presence in Japan’s otherwise drab political world for four decades. A novelist turned right-wing firebrand, he has long held celebrity status on the political margins, where he was known for dramatic flourish. He once signed a pact in blood to oppose diplomatic ties with China because of its communist government, and he published a book at the height of Japan’s economic power that lectured his countrymen on the need to end what he considered its postwar servility to the United States…

“With his promises to restore Japan’s battered national pride, Mr. Ishihara has staked out an even more stridently nationalistic position than … Shinzo Abe, the leader of the conservative Liberal Democratic Party, who has called for revising Japan’s pacifist constitution. Analysts worry that if Mr. Ishihara [or his followers eventually] succeeds [in gaining significant political power, this] could weaken relations with the United States, yank Japan to the right and damage ties with China, which is already angered by his almost single-handedly rekindling a territorial dispute over an island chain.

“But even [though] Mr. Ishihara [lost], they say, his campaign could still have a lasting effect, bringing patriotic populism into the political mainstream of a nation that has shunned such open jingoism since its devastating defeat inWorld War II.” New York Times, December 8^th. But Japan is definitely lurching towards the right, even if Abe represents a relatively small step in that direction.

The best defense is a good offense? Does the fact that Mr. Ishihara and his followers believe that Japan should become a nuclear-armed military power seem like a good idea? And what impact do these concepts have on the rest of Japan? Just how much traction is there for such radicalism? More worrisome given the above statistics, how much more traction will such concepts generate in the future as things get worse?

I’m Peter Dekom, and giant oaks from little acorns grow.