So What Did You Think Was Going to Happen?

Shiites are a persecuted minority Islamic sect with the concentration of Shiite religious leadership living in 90%+-Shiite Iran. Iraq is 60% Shiite, which until 2003 was led by a brutal Sunni dictator. We know the two sects really distrust and dislike each other. Iraqi Shiites have always felt an affinity for their Iranian brethren, despite a feverish war (1980-88) fomented by Saddam Hussein against Iran.

When we imposed a new “democratic government” on a land created from a 1916 edict of Western powers who simply drew lines on a map – with majority rule – the Shiites quickly took over effective political control of Iraq. The Kurds simply ignored the new government and created an autonomous district in their northernmost land, giving the Shiites a three-quarters majority over the rest of the nation. While Sunnis represent 85% of Islam globally, in Iraq, they were reduced to a powerless minority relegated to expressing their disenfranchised frustration by bombing symbols of Shiite power and faith.

 Why are American policy-makers remotely surprised that Iraqi Shiites have totally embraced their Iranian neighbor and are completely sympathetic to Bashar al-Assad’s Alawite (a Shiite affiliated sub-sect) repressive and murderous regime in neighboring Syria? We know Iran has been supplying arms to its brother-Alawite government in Syria since most of the rest of the world slammed the door on Damascus. And if you look at a map, it’s pretty obvious that the most direct route, by land or air from Iran to Syria, is over Iraqi soil.

With a wink and a nod to their friends in Damascus and Tehran, in September the Iraqi leadership promised U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton about making sure their airspace was not going to be used to ferry military supplies from Tehran’s regime to the al-Assad forces in Syria. Yes, they did check two flights, both negative (one of the planes was on a return flight!). But U.S. intelligence tells us a different story: Iraqi airspace has become a real conduit for supplying arms and munitions to fuel al-Assad’s continued slaughter of his own people, now in widespread open rebellion against the incumbent regimes fierce brutality. The flights were limited until senior Assad officials were killed in Damascus in an explosion in July, and then the re-supply effort resumed with a vengeance.

“There is evidence of collusion between Iranian and Iraqi officials on the inspections, according to American intelligence assessments. In one instance, according to an American intelligence report, Qassim Suleimani, the leader of Iran’s Quds Force, ordered that a flight to Syria carry only humanitarian goods. An Iraqi inspection occurred soon after, when the plane was asked to land in Iraq on Oct. 27.

“Much of the American intelligence community’s concerns about possible collusion has focused on Hadi al-Amiri, Iraq’s minister of transportation, who is believed to be close to the Iranians and was among the Iraqi traveling party when Mr. Maliki visited Washington last year. Mr. Amiri said: ‘This is untrue. We are an independent country and our stance is clear. We will search whichever plane we want, whenever we want. We will not take orders.’” New York Times, December 1^st. Who needs orders when your heart is with the Iranians and Syrians?

The Iraqis further protest their innocence despite these findings: “Iraqi officials insist that they oppose the ferrying of arms through Iraq’s airspace. They also cite claims by Iran that it is merely delivering humanitarian aid, and they call the American charges unfounded… ‘We wouldn’t be able to convince [U.S. officials], even if we searched all the airplanes, because they have prejudged the situation,’ Ali al-Musawi, the spokesman for Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki of Iraq, said of the American concerns. ‘Our policy is that we will not allow the transfer of arms to Syria.’…

“But one former Iraqi official, who asked not to be identified because he feared retaliation by the Iraqi government, said that some officials in Baghdad had been doing the bare minimum to placate the United States and were in fact sympathetic to the Iranian efforts in Syria.” NY Times. Let’s face it, with Shiite-hostile Sunnis and Kurds very present in Iraq, it is very comforting for the al-Maliki administration to know there are Shiite-led regimes in two very important border states. If Assad and his Alawites fall, Syria becomes a hostile Sunni-majority-run country on Iraq’s border. Clearly, al-Maliki wants continued U.S. aide, but his and his constituents’ sentiments are with any Shiite-linked power.

“Iran’s support for Syria is vital to the Assad government, American officials said. In addition to flying arms and ammunition to Syria, Iran’s paramilitary Quds Force is sending trainers and advisers, sometimes disguised as religious pilgrims, tourists and businessmen, the officials say… Iran’s flights of arms to Syria drew the concern of American officials soon after the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq last December. Iraq lacks an air force and is unable to enforce control of its own airspace, and Iran took advantage by ferrying arms to Syria.” NY Times.

Americans are experts at creating ugly unintended consequences for themselves from major policy missteps. The Obama administration has very limited control over al-Maliki and his Shiite majority. Oh, the Iraqis will say what they need to in order to keep the aide spigot open, but we know what they are doing and will continue to do. Blowback has become such a rich part of our contemporary American vocabulary. Oh, did I mention, while Iraq doesn’t have weapons of mass destruction, both Syria and Iran do.

I’m Peter Dekom, and America’s knee-jerk shoot first and ask questions later use of its military option has been rather consistently the greatest source of U.S. policy failures since WWII.