Trump-War by the Art of the Deal

As the US-China trade war is now officially under way, it is fascinating to listen to American soybean farmers watching their incomes fritter away while pledging undying allegiance to Donald Trump. “He’s a businessman; he knows what he’s doing,” said one. Yes, the same businessman who (directly or through controlled companies) has involved in well over 3,000 lawsuits, whose legendary litany of bankrupt companies eclipses almost any other self-proclaimed “billionaire,” whose NYC real estate business was rescued from another bankruptcy by a group of Hong Kong financiers who took The Donald to the cleaners, whose Trump University generated a $25 million Trump settlement in light of very serious fraud allegations, who will not make his tax returns public (why, Donald?) and whom Goldman Sachs suggested would have made billions more money from his inheritance (yes, inheritance) had he just put his money in the stock market.

His constituency believes Trump is just implementing his “America First” slogan. Another farmer: “The United States has been unfairly treated in trade for years. Trump is just trying to bring fairness into this mix. They’ve been taking our jobs for years.” Really? That was indeed true back ten to twenty years ago, but plenty of the “exported jobs” have been reshored to the United States with one huge caveat: the rich companies bringing that manufacturing back to the USA are not restoring most of those well-paying lost “jobs”; they are resorting to highly-sophisticated automation instead. So Trump’s rich cronies make more money, get massive tax cuts as well, but those who lost those now-obsolete jobs… well not so much.

Ignored reality: That no nation has “won” a trade war in the modern era – although a few isolated industries might temporarily benefit at the expense of everybody else; but recessions/ depressions have been triggered or deepened by trade wars. Trump supporters don’t seem to like to read history books. They prefer to take The Donald’s promises at face value.

Meanwhile, the Trump charm offensive with North Korea – with lots of promises of quick results while heaping his truckloads of insults to past U.S. presidents for failing to bring North Korea and their nuclear program to heel decades ago – seems to be stalling. The parties are still talking, but Donald Trump appears absolutely certain that North Korea will shut down its nuclear/missile program and destroy its horde of nukes with a clear and irrefutable inspection verification program. All this in exchange for an American pledge of the North’s territorial integrity plus some nefarious economic promises, hinting at beachfront hotels and resorts that sound more like the touts of a real estate developer in a slick brochure than the utterances of a head of state.

The Trump administration may have missed the satellite photographs, taken by its own intelligence agencies, showing a very recent expansion of North Korean nuclear facilities. They may have missed the statements from Kim Jong-Un himself seeking admission to the community of nuclear powers in which “denuclearization” is part of the North’s participation in a global effort to reduce the threat of nuclear war. That does appear to be the North’s vision of what “denuclearization” really means. To Trump, it’s a US-North Korean bilateral thang. A really big disconnect.

As Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, returned from recent negotiations with the North, he spoke of “progress.” While the North is willing to keep talking, their official response was hardly reflective of that “progress.” Their position appears to sustain their view that denuclearization is a multi-party global process.

The New Times (July 7^th) reports: “North Korea accused the Trump administration on Saturday [7/7] of pushing a ‘unilateral and gangster-like demand for denuclearization’ and called it ‘deeply regrettable,’ hours after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said his two days of talks in the North Korean capital were ‘productive.’

“Despite the criticism, North Korea’s Foreign Ministry said the country’s leader, Kim Jong-un, still wanted to build on the ‘friendly relationship and trust’ forged with President Trump during their summit meeting in Singapore on June 12. The ministry said Mr. Kim had written a personal letter to Mr. Trump, reiterating that trust.

“The two sides have a history of veering between harsh talk and conciliation. President Trump briefly called off the Singapore summit meeting with Kim Jong-un over what he called North Korea’s ‘open hostility,’ only to declare it back on after receiving what he called a ‘very nice letter’ from Mr. Kim.

“On Saturday [7/7], Mr. Pompeo and his entourage offered no immediate evidence that they had come away with anything tangible to show that North Korea was willing to surrender its nuclear and missile weapons programs. He did not meet with Mr. Kim but held talks with Kim Yong-chol, a senior North Korean official who has been negotiating with Americans for decades.” “Gangster-like” does not seem like progress to me.

Meanwhile, our traditional allies like Mexico, Canada, the European Union, etc. are circling their wagons against Trump-imposed tariffs – imposed under the rather flimsy statutorily-required finding of a “national security” threat. Canada? Really? Meanwhile, emulating Trump, China is doubling down against U.S. tariffs. The above pollical cartoon appeared in the China Daily. Trump’s anti-NATO statements and rather direct insults of too many leaders of allied nations continue to isolate the United States, not only from our enemies and frenemies but even our closest allies.

I’m Peter Dekom, and it is hard to understand the admiration Donald Trump’s uninformed bumbling in international matters generates among his constituents, the folks who will be hurt the most from his failing efforts.