Shhhhhhhhhush!

The isolated rural communities, inland or in the northernmost reaches of the state, the lily -white suburbs of some of the most liberal cities, the numerous oil field areas, lumber extractors, military communities… welcome to Donald Trump’s California. Even agricultural zones that totally depend on stoop-labor undocumented immigrants. They rely on water, now in abundance in many reservoirs but clearly facing what was one of the driest Februaries on record. Drought is looming again. Preserving estuaries, endangered species and diverting water sources with environmentally unfriendly solutions just do not matter to them. Dams are good. Private prisons are job-creators. Banning fracking and mandating environmental restrictions on oil drilling are job killers.

Residents in these communities have watched California veer from the years of Republican governors and members of Congress to becoming the brightest, bluest beacon in the land. From Reagan to Obama. With almost 13% of the entire US population, the most prolific tech sector in the United States, defining port cities, entertainment and media their hallmark and providers of everything from petroleum to fresh vegetables, California is rich and exceptionally powerful. A constant and proud thorn in Donald Trump’s hide.

Devin Nunes aside, being openly pro-Trump in California requires reliance on a very narrow band of political adherents. Fine if you live in pure red districts. Not so fine where a candidate, even in a strong GOP stronghold, needs a few independents and even a Democrat or two to cross the line. Donald Trump’s divisive, mendacious and abusive language-infested tirades and tweets don’t fare well in California. California women, middle aged on down, find his sexism abhorrent. In a multiethnic state, excepting a truly pro-Trump ethnically Vietnamese vote, his racist and ethnic vituperatives are a major turnoff for most California voters.

Still there are districts where a slight swing of independent voters can turn the ride in favor of a Republican seeking a seat in the House of Representatives. But there is catch. While GOP politicians in red states trip all over themselves to align with Donald Trump, in swing districts, riding the Donald’s coattails can be fatal.

Writing from the state capital, George Skelton (for the March 2^nd Los Angeles Times) tells us how California Republican candidates are dealing with this conundrum: “If the leader of the California Republican Party had her way, GOP candidates in this state would never mention President Trump’s name.

“Not that Jessica Millan Patterson [conveniently a Latina] is trashing Trump — it’s hard to imagine a state Republican leader badmouthing a GOP president — but she devours the polls like every political pro. And polls consistently show that throughout most of California, Trump’s name is dirt.

“The latest poll by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California found that among likely voters, 94% of Democrats and 57% of independents disapprove of Trump’s job performance. It was approved by 84% of Republicans, but they’ve become increasingly scarce in California.

“So for any Republican candidate running in a competitive district against a Democrat, warmly embracing the unpopular president would be a vote-killer… Patterson, chairwoman of the California Republican Party, says legislative candidates should campaign only on state and local issues and avoid all subjects presidential.

“Congressional candidates might assail Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ call for single-payer, government-only health insurance — tying it to all Democrats — but they should similarly focus on the everyday problems of California voters, she says.

“‘Our focus in California is on keeping it local,’ Patterson told me when asked how Republican candidates should handle Trump. ‘We’re going to be talking about things happening here and affecting voters’ lives — focused on what’s happening in Sacramento. Democrats have given us a lot to work with.’” The GOP here is old and mostly white traditional. California is mostly neither. While many red states are anti-science, technology is big business in this state. That Donald Trump appointed unqualified science-skeptic and uber-loyalist Mike Pence to helm the nation’s fight against the coronavirus was not lost on California voters. But the anti-GOP feeling here is nothing new.

“Californians haven’t elected a Republican to statewide office since 2006. It’s strictly one-party rule in Sacramento. Democrats hold supermajorities in both legislative houses… And Democrats dominate the California delegation to the U.S. House by 46 to 7. Republicans lost half their seats in 2018 when Democrats tagged GOP incumbents as Trump toadies.

“‘Coming out of November 2018, we were in incredibly dark times,’ Patterson says. ‘But that darkness has been filled with some hope, some excitement and just the right amount of people being pissed off — about everything from homelessness to just being able to afford staying in California any longer … ‘We see that in candidate recruitment, volunteer recruitment and online contributions.’

“Patterson says the party raised $1 million online last year, a 1,000% increase. There has been a 33% increase in major donors… But Republican voter registration has fallen in recent decades to 23.7% of the electorate, far behind Democrats, who are at 44.6%. The GOP even trails ‘no party preference’ independents, 25.9%.” LA Times.

Don’t mention Trump, recruit better-off ethnic minorities, stick to local issues and increase GOP turnout. Better strategy than in recent years, and some issues (like “right to life” versus “prochoice” are non-starters for GOP candidates here), but the rest of the nation is looking more like California… and not the reverse. The national GOP strategy, therefor, continues to rely on gerrymandering, voter suppression and disinformation, three strategies that are dead on arrival in California. Fortunately for the GOP, the Dems are killing each other. Perhaps the best thing for the GOP is to untether from Donald Trump… but if he does not lose in November…

            I’m Peter Dekom, and while this period of demographic transition is particularly difficult, the Democrats have perfected their own internal, as Obama calls it, circular firing squad.