Here’s how it all started, according to the State Department’s South Korea page: “On June 25, 1950, North Korean forces invaded South Korea [Republic of Korea – R.O.K.]. Led by the U.S., a 16-member coalition undertook the first collective action under United Nations Command (UNC). Following China's entry on behalf of North Korea later that year, a stalemate ensued for the final two years of the conflict. Armistice negotiations, initiated in July 1951, were ultimately concluded on July 27, 1953 at Panmunjom, in what is now the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). The Armistice Agreement was signed by representatives of the Korean People's Army [the North], the Chinese People's Volunteers, and the U.S.-led UNC. Though the R.O.K. supported the UNC, it refused to sign the Armistice Agreement. A peace treaty has never be en signed. The war left almost three million Koreans dead or wounded and millions of others homeless and separated from their families.”
In 1953, the United States and South Korea entered into a mutual defense treaty, specifically aimed at protecting that nation from further similar attacks. 34 years later (1987), North Korean agents placed a bomb aboard a South Korean 707 passenger jet, which detonated and killed all 104 passengers and 11 crew members. Time slowly put this incident behind as the war of words and threats and icy stares across the DMZ were the major remaining relics of the war.
Technically, despite several attempts to find a path to peaceful co-existence, the North and the South, having never signed the treaty, are still at war. Until recently, with tensions ebbing and flowing, that “war” was little more than an historical fact, relegated to the pages of history texts about the region. For a time, relations were sufficiently on track that the South came to think of the presence of U.S. troops as an unnecessary intrusion that should slowly fade away.
But then the provocations and weapons escalations began anew. Long range missile tests and the detonation of several underground nuclear devices by the North began to terrify southerners. Then came the regime change – Kim Jong Il’s failing health pushing his younger son, Kim Jong Un, into the successor’s chair – and having to placate the military to support the transition. Nothing has gone right since. Jong Un, still in his twenties, was made a four star general. It seemed as if the military was determined to extract a new toughness if they were indeed going to allow a familial dynastic government, one that elder son (skipped over in favor of his younger brother) – Kim Jong Nam – seemed to oppose: “Personally I oppose the hereditary succession for three generations," Kim Jong Nam said in an October interview on Japanese television, "But I presume there were internal reasons. We should abide by such reasons if there are any.”
Then in March, a South Korean patrol boat (the Cheonan, pictured above) was blown out of the water, purportedly (the North still denies this) by a North Korean torpedo launched from a submarine, killing 46 of the 104 crewmen on board. And of course, there was the recent artillery shelling initiated by the North, which killed four (including S. Korean marines) and injured 19 others (including civilians), on a disputed island where the South had conducted military maneuvers. The South was completely unprepared for this accelerating tension with the North. The Defense Minister resigned, and President Lee Myung-bak announced new military guidelines making it easier for the S. Korean military to respond to attacks. The North countered with an accusation that the South was using civilian “human shields” around its military installations where the shelling occurs, but added that the civilian casualties “were regrettable.” On November 29th, Lee added: “North Korea will pay the price in the event of further provocations… Attacking civilians militarily is an inhumane crime that is strictly forbidden in a time of war. ... Now is the time to show action, not a hundred words.”
Things are going from bad to worse. “South Korea’s prime minister and other dignitaries attended a large funeral for the two South Korean marines who were killed in the attack on Yeonpyeong Island [on November 27th]. The commander of South Korea’s marines, Lt. Gen. Yoo Nak-joon, vowed to revenge the deaths ‘1,000-fold.’… ‘We will put our feelings of rage and animosity in our bones and take our revenge on North Korea,’ he said.” New York Times, November 27th. The U.S. and South Korean announced massive joint naval exercise, which was seen by the North as a major provocation (surprise!). The joint exercise actually began on November 28th built around a U.S. carrier (USS George Washington) task force in the Yellow Sea. The North quickly moved missile batteries towards the coast.
After the exercise ended on December 1st, the mood in the South did not change: “‘There is a high possibility that the North will make an additional attack,’ South Korea's intelligence chief, Won Sei-hoon, told a parliamentary committee meeting… Won's warning was echoed by Defense Minister Kim Tae-Young, who said there is an ‘ample possibility’ the North could strike again after the end of the joint maneuvers...” AOLNew.com (December 1st).
But as the United States had asked China to intervene – China appears to be one of the few moderating influences on the N. Korean regime – the initial response was cool… perhaps even cold: “In a statement from its Foreign Ministry, China warned against ‘any military acts in our exclusive economic zone without permission,’ the state-run Xinhua news agency reported Friday. But virtually all the waters to the west of the Korean Peninsula, where the United States said the exercises would take place, lie within that zone, and American naval traffic is far from uncommon there… Adding yet more tension to the situation, the North’s state-run media also warned that the maneuvers could push the Korean Peninsula closer to ‘the brink of war.’… The West has hoped that China would use its leverage as the North’s traditional ally to press it to refrain from further attacks , but the Chinese statement on Friday failed even to criticize the North for its shelling on Tuesday of a garrison island that is also home to about 1,350 civilians, mainly fishermen.” New York Times, November 26th.
On the 28th, the Chinese, realizing how quickly tensions could escalate to the next level, moved… noting the escalating danger level: “China stepped up its diplomatic efforts to cool tempers in the region, with a senior envoy holding a meeting on [November 28th] with South Korea’s president and Beijing announcing that it had invited a senior North Korean official for talks this week. China also called for an emergency meeting of the so-called six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear program, news agencies reported.” NY Times, November 28th.
In the end, this provocation and escalating rhetoric very easily could result in all-out war. And with the North constantly saber-rattling – but the sabers are nukes sitting atop longer range missiles – the almost three million casualties of the Korean War could be just a drop in the bucket compared to the devastation nuclear war could bring. This is as close to such a war as the United States has come since the end of World War II, Cuban Missile Crisis notwithstanding. Something’s gotta give.
I’m Peter Dekom, and I hope Hillary Clinton figures this out sooner rather than later!
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