When I was boy, a U.S. Foreign Service brat living with parents stationed in Beirut, Lebanon, I remember the occasional foray up the mountains, across the Bekka Valley (where today opium poppies bloom in the spring) and up through another mountain pass on the other side… into Syria. I remember these massive concrete pyramids on the Lebanese side of the border, with bulldozers behind them, ready to be moved to block the roads through which Syrian tanks and troops would pour in the event of an attack. Even at that young age, I chuckled at the thought that anyone would think such barriers would have the slightest deterrence to a serious military incursion. Then we drove on into Damascus.
The mood and atmosphere in Lebanon was generally upbeat and happy; laughter and prosperity were everywhere. It was delightful place to live. But crossing into Syria was a whole different trip. Dour caution, reinforced with well-armed soldiers carrying automatic weapons, pierced the air. The sunniest day was gray and foreboding; laughter was a luxury few could afford. Suspicion was the mood of the times. I remember the Hilter-like demagoguery in Egyptian President Gamal Abul Nassar’s speeches, blaring from radios across the Arab world; his union with Syria (set in 1958) unraveled in the early 1960s, and military coups and armed instability marked Syria’s transition in 1963 to a Baathist-dominated government installed by force by leftist Syrian Army officers of the National Council of the Revolutionary Command. Syria was about guns and fear.
My memories of Syria are dark. I never forgot the manifest fear of a happy people in Lebanon stressing over the possibility of Syrian conquest and hegemony. In 1970, until his death in 2000, Hafez al-Assad led his Baathist nation through military conflicts with Israel, very anti-American and brutal in his suppression of his enemies. Upon his death in 2000, the mantle of power passed to his son, Bashar al-Assad, more moderate than his father, more open to dialog with the West – or so it seemed – and a very slender ray of light in this otherwise dark country.
In 1976, Hafez al-Assad (pictured above) implemented Lebanon’s worst fears. Wikipedia: “In early 1976, the Lebanese civil war was going poorly for the Maronite Christians [a very large segment of the Lebanese population]. Following a request from the Maronites, Syria sent 40,000 troops into the country ostensibly to prevent them from being overrun, but abruptly switched sides soon thereafter and became embroiled in the Lebanese Civil War, beginning the 30 year Syrian military presence. Many crimes in Lebanon, including the assassinations of [prime ministers and other political leaders] were attributed to the Syrian forces and intelligence services. Over the following 15 years of civil war, Syria fought for control over Lebanon, and attempted to undermine Israel in southern Lebanon, through extensive use of proxy militias. Many saw the Syrian Army's presence in Lebanon as an occupation, especially following the end of the civil war in 1990, after the Syrian-sponsored Taif Agreement. Syria then remained in Lebanon until 2005, exerting a heavy-handed influence over Lebanese politics that was deeply resented by many. Following the assassination of the popular former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, blamed on Syria, pressure was put to bear on Syria to withdraw their forces from Lebanon. On April 26, 2005 the bulk of the Syrian forces withdrew from Lebanon, but some of its intelligence operatives remained, drawing further international rebuke.” Lebanon remains very much under Syria’s thumb, even today.
Lebanon unraveled, and civil war destroyed the joyous civility I had remembered from my youth. Palestinians encamped in southern Lebanon, and Israel began routine strikes into that region – with planes, tanks and troops – indiscriminately decimating uninvolved locals along with vicious Palestinian guerrillas with Israel’s destruction in their hearts and minds. Shiite and Sunni factions battled Maronite warriors, and the country was divided into enclaves. Many Christians and Sunnis left for safer grounds, and the militant Shiite populations exploded, pushing Hezbollah – a terrorist organization dedicated to the destruction of Israel – into increasing levels of power. Shiite Iran supported Hezbollah with military training, weapons and funding. Syria (ostensibly under a secular Baathist regime), although primarily a Sunni nation, was v ery good at playing both sides for the Sunni-Shiite divide, allying with Iran and supporting Hezbollah, while maintaining a new dialog with the West and even (under the table) Israel.
As a relative but uneasy peace settled over Lebanon, the remaining Lebanese were very much aware that they were very much under Syrian control, even though the direct Syrian military presence had long since dissipated. Still, the times appeared to be settling down. But apparently Syria is simply unable to let go of Lebanon, and there are new signs, particularly over the past twenty months, that Syria is mounting a new campaign of increasingly direct control over its Mediterranean neighbor to the west. The December 4th Washington Post: “Syria's fresh interference in Lebanon and its increasingly sophisticated weapons shipments to Hezbollah have alarmed American officials and prompted Israel's military to consider a strike against a Syrian weapons depot that supplies the Lebanese militia group, U.S. and Israeli officials say… The evidence of a resurgence by Syria and its deepening influence across the region has frustrated U.S. officials who sought to change Syrian behavior. But the Obama administration has so far failed through its policy of engagement to persuade the country to abandon its support for Hezbollah and sever its alliance with Iran.”
A military strike by Israel against such weapons depots could reignite a regional war, and as a result, Israelis have focused more on diplomacy than military alternatives. The Obama administration has tried to moderate Syria though dialog with its neighbors, but strains on U.S.-Turkish relations over recent conflicts involving shipping supplies to Gaza have diluted that effort. Direct dialog with Syria has not worked either: “The Obama administration's efforts at dialogue with Syria have done little to stop the flow of weapons, end Syria's practice of sheltering Palestinian leaders of militant groups, or counter Syria's interference in Lebanon, which has undermined the U.S. effort to promote Lebanese independence from external actors.” Syria’s Baathist government purportedly shelters senior members of the former Iraqi Baathist regime ( of Saddam Hussein) and even allows and arms “foreign fighters” who move back and forth across its border with Iraq with impunity.
Confirmation battles over a new U.S. ambassador to Syria further complicate the dialog process. Sitting on Iraq’s left flank, what happens in Syria is very material to developments in the struggling Iraqi nation. In short, the Middle East is falling apart – again – perhaps in part due to the rise of Iran as a regional power, seeming to eclipse the more moderate Arab countries in the area. Syria, reading the writing on the wall, appears to be catering to Iran’s policies in Lebanon and slanting her going-forward policies under an assumption that it is better to be on Iran’s side in a conflict than with the seemingly weakened moderates in the region. We need that ambassador in Damascus, and we need to give the Syrian leadership some very serious reasons to reverse its current course.
I’m Peter Dekom, and it is often the places where you are not looking that create the “next big mess.”
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