Car Pools Taking a Dive

In 1990, Congress passed and the President signed into law another Clean Air Act (an amendment to a series of such statutes which were first enacted in 1963), a bill which recognized greenhouse gasses and create new directions for American environmental regulation: “The Clean Air Act is significant in that it was the first major environmental law in the United States to include a provision for citizen suits. Numerous state and local governments have enacted similar legislation, either implementing federal programs or filling in locally important gaps in federal programs.

The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 proposed emissions trading, added provisions for addressing acid rain, ozone depletion and toxic air pollution, and established a national permits program. The amendments once approved also established new auto gasoline reformulation requirements, set Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) standards to control evaporative emissions from gasoline, and mandated that the new gasoline formulations be sold from May to September in many states.” Wikipedia. And Congress created a timeline for companies to create and implement policies to encourage their employees to opt to participate in commuter car pools or use public transport. Remember the company-supplied car pool van? By the mid-1990s, critics had mounted such a vigorous campaign against mandating car pooling that Congress dropped that provision as unworkable. Folks argued that with high gasoline prices and the mounting cost of driving and maintaining a car, car pools would evolve naturally as the commuting method of choice for most workers.

They were wrong. While a quarter of commuting workers used car pools in the 1970s, today, that fraction has fallen dramatically: “[F]ar more people are driving alone, as companies have spread out, Americans are wealthier and cars have become cheaper to own. The percentage of workers who car-pool has dropped by almost half since 1980, the first time the Census Bureaustarted systematically tracking the numbers, according to new data from the bureau… The sharp decline has confounded efforts by urban planners, who over the years have tried to encourage the practice by setting aside highway lanes for car-poolers, as well as offering incentives like discounted parking.” New York Times, January 28^th.

Statistics tell us that despite a slight improvement after the economic collapse in 2008, traffic congestion in the U.S. is rising once again, lengthening commute times back to intolerable, wasting billions of dollars in idling and gas-consuming vehicles with unproductive workers waiting to begin their daily jobs. For example a study by the Chicago area Metropolitan Planning Council tells us that in that urban concentration alone, the annual waste (fuel and lost work time) comes to $7.9 billion a year, double what they expected. Multiply that number across the United States!

Suburban sprawl also pushed workers farther apart, making getting together for the commute less desirable. Varying and often unpredictable overtime patterns and work habits made sharing a ride that much more difficult to implement. Flextime and telecommuting made regular office hours less common: “[T]he number of people working from home at least one day a week… has tripled since 1998, to about 600,000.” NY Times.

But interestingly enough, even though rates are falling in every category, certain ethnicities or racial groups are more prone to commute than Caucasian workers: “The census data also show that different races car-pool at different rates. According to the census, black, Hispanic and Asian commuters car-pool far more than white workers… In 2000, the car-pool rate for Hispanic workers was 28 percent, double the rate for whites, partly because of new immigrants sharing rides to jobs at construction sites or factories. But even Hispanics are relying less on group rides: by 2009, the rate for Hispanics had fallen to 19 percent.” NY Times. Women have moved into the workplace in record numbers, owning their own cars, and often wanting to be able to respond to an emergency with their young children in school or in childcare… having a car handy just in case.

But the simplest explanation is probably the most accurate; more people have cars today, and hence more people drive them: “‘It’s economic,’ said Roger F. Teal, a former professor of civil engineering whose Illinois software company, DemandTrans Solutions, helps municipalities with transportation issues. ‘If people have a car available, they will use it.’… With today’s high levels of car ownership, ‘the strongest motivation for people to car-pool disappeared,’ said Mr. Teal, who conducted one of the early comprehensive studies of car-pooling. Car ownership has outstripped even population growth, as the number of cars parked in American driveways has risen by nearly 60 percent since 1980, while the number of Americans has grown by a third.” NY Times.

The “one true thing” about our future is that increasing global demand and the exponential growth of car ownership in developing nations – particularly India and China – is going to push dwindling oil supplies to record prices. The evidence of rising prices at the pump is all around us, and while cars are more efficient than ever – many able to function with alternative fuel – the overall demand for energy will inevitably kick the costs of driving a car to a much higher level. As the dollar loses value and most Americans learn to do with less, perhaps this old world notion of sharing a ride to work will return… or so many of us will work from home that it won’t matter anymore. Time will tell.

I’m Peter Dekom, and cars are very seductive… but perhaps there will be a tipping point that will make such commuting practices uneconomical.