A Lot of Fridays Left

Maybe not… it just might be this one… as I'll note below. But what is the lesson of Egypt, Tunis and the other nations struggling to depose autocrats who support and defend a small power elite that enjoy economic hegemony over the rest of the country? And is it a lesson that can only be interpreted against the backdrop of a poor, repressed and developing nation where radical fundamentalists vie with the secular intelligentsia for a new voice? Or is a lesson that history has taught many times across the spectrum of political systems… that inevitably results in regime change? As one of the longest continuing forms of government on earth – the United States of America – do these events in Egypt and other nations give us pause… could this ever happen here?

There is no ten thousand-year Reich; there are no ruling governmental structures that survive forever. Four hundred years is a “long average” for nations will reasonably solid governing structures. We’re well past halfway on that scale, and in today’s world, everything seems to be accelerating. Decline can come from the outside – conquest or environmental factors (but are the latter really imposed from the outside?) – or from within – resource impairment, disenfranchisement of a sufficiently large segment of the population, ideological differences, etc. Bottom line, the United States of America is, notwithstanding our most patriotic impassioned belief, not forever. The questions of when it will happen, why and what will replace it are highly engaging. And perhaps such thoughts might spur some of us to take some steps to reserve the republic.

Will the “end” come from regional disaster demands piling up within a short time, straining the ability of the central government to help everyone: rising tides flooding coastal cities or the exhaustion of major water supplies in the Western half of the country or hurricanes decimating the Gulf Coast? Or perhaps too much favoritism to the financial power elite as the rest of the country’s standard of living falls to new depths (“excessive polarization”)? Maybe it will be ideological and religious differences that make living within a single “tolerant” system intolerable for sufficient numbers of states to force schism that shatters our national boundaries? Or maybe a powerful enemy will attack a weakened United States, drained of the financial ability to support a military to defend itself? Whatever the “end,” I suspect it isn’t around the corner, but if you look at the above issues and seek their reflection in “today,” the evidence of such strain is truly unnerving; Americans no longer speak with the pride of a single passionate commitment to the same political system.

In Egypt, when Mubarak is long gone, will the country still be ruled by the economic powers that benefited from a corrupt “special system” that gave them riches beyond all reason in a nation struggling with poverty? Mubarak was the enabler and the creator of the system, but a super-powerful military (with some serious money as well) – armed to the teeth (much through U.S. aid) – and a mega-rich upper class aren’t going away, and they are not going to let go of their fistfuls of cash easily. Even as protests continue, the power elite are looking to paint a “we’ve really changed” picture by naming some token scapegoats and giving the semblance of change for the masses: “[S]triking is the way the [interim Egyptian] government has begun shedding the business elite that surrounded it only months ago. Officials have announced the freezing of assets and a prohibition on travel for Ahmed Ezz, a hated steel magnate and leading member of the governing party, and for Rashid Mohammed Rashid, a former minister of trade and industry, Ahmed el-Maghraby, a former housing minister, and Zuheir Garana, a former minister of tourism. (The travel ban meant little for Mr. Rashid; he was in Dubai when the announcement was made.)

“‘We decided on eliminating all businessmen,’ Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq said [February 4^th] of his cabinet in an interview with Al Arabiya, an Arabic satellite channel, in a gesture toward protesters who have made Mr. Ezz a symbol of everything corrupt about the state.” New York Times, February 5^th. Friday, February 4^th, was the deadline set by protestors for Mubarak’s departure, but he didn’t leave… yet. “There are a lot of Fridays left,’ said Tayssir Ibrahim, a protester in [Cairo’s] Tahrir Square… ‘The people are stubborn now,’ [said another].” NY Times. Despite an attempt by the Mubarak administration to offer short term appeasements (like 15% raises for many) pending fall elections to replace him, strikes have paralyzed the country, and popular sentiment is unchanged. A million man protest is called for February 11, but the government is threatening a violent crackdown: “Egypt's foreign minister warned [February 10^th] that the army could seize control of the country if protesters do not halt the anti-government demonstrations that have been underway for 17 days, a prospect that he called ‘very grave.’” Washington Post, February 10^th. Every sign points to Mubarak's ceding power to his military and stepping aside in the immediate future… today or tomorrow even.

If there is a lesson for contemporary America, it may simply be to pay attention to the signs of our own patterns of polarization and disruptive behavior… there is subtle balance between true democracy which respects minorities and using democracy to impose a majority (or powerful “super-minority”) view at the expense of dissenters and the “ordinary” minority. And that is a lesson that all-too-many Americans seem to be ignoring… putting the most magnificent political experiment in history – The United States of America – in a jeopardy I suspect they simply do not contemplate. Right, left and center. Listen very carefully to the massive rhetoric of intolerance.

I’m Peter Dekom, and if you love this country, take a long careful look at your willingness to allow and protect those with viewpoints strongly different from your own.