Fanning the Flames

The subtext in the changing balance of power in the Muslim world is the frustration of their educated younger adults; a market segment with the intelligence to foment change with every technological and organizational skill-set in existence. Aside from brutal repression, a severe limitation on free speech and corruption of the elite – hallmarks of many of these nations – the educated classes, where leaders and structural implementers are born, are massively unemployed. Forced free time, economic frustration, seething anger at the status quo and solid modern educations are a volatile mix.

Let’s take a look at the Middle East well before the economic collapse and long before the violent riots and protests of the recent weeks. This report appeared in the Ria Novosti on February 8, 2007: “The rate of unemployment in Egypt is ten times higher in the educated section of the population than among illiterates, independent newspaper Al-Masri al-Yawm said, citing an Arab labor report… The Arab Labor Organization (ALO) said in the report that the that the trend of higher unemployment among literates applied to count ries throughout the Arab world, with a ratio of 5:1 in Morocco and 3:1 in Algeria.

“According to the findings, Arab nations have among the highest unemployment rates in the world, averaging at 14%, and 25% among young people… So far in 2007, Egypt's unemployment rate has averaged at 8.3%, according to the national economic research center. The situation has been aggravated by rapid population growth, and failure on the part of the government to increase the number of specialist jobs.” If you can access photographs (like the one above) of the 1979 revolution that toppled Iran’s Shah, aside from the grey-beards of the wise religious prelates (who are the powers under Shiite rules), what you see are tens of thousands of young people on the streets. Conservative young people, raised on values that they did not see reflected in the world around them. A 444 day-hostage-taking of the Americans who were captured in our embassy in Tehran back then was just the beginning of the strongly vituperatively anti-American government that followed.

It is no surprise then that the educated unemployed seem to be at the forefront of fomenting unrest in the Muslim world, using social networking – particularly Facebook and Twitter – to consolidate their message to the masses; they are clearly going to be at the edge of technological and communications innovation. And while Egypt’s fundamentalist Muslim Brotherhood jumped on the bandwagon, the revolution most certainly was not triggered by this group. Even if that elusive “Islamic Republic” isn’t the ultimate result of the political shaking we are witnessing, the macro-trends in the entire Muslim world are going anywhere but where American policy-makers want. In addition to the escalating riots aimed at toppling Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak (one of our main allies in the Middle East), a pro-American government has been toppled in Tunisia, riots plague Yemen, protests have led moderate Jordanian King Abdullah II to sack his cabinet and the civil unrest in Lebanon escalates as Hezbollah seems to have wrested political control from a once-moderate pro-U.S. prime minister.

Fear of the new technologies that allow masses to react in unison is slamming incumbents – particularly dictators – in the teeth. While television, radio and print have been relatively easy to control or censor, mobile and Web-based communications have proven impossible to control, even as Egypt has killed its own Internet and telecommunications systems in a effort to stem this modern form of communications. Internet censorship has obsessed monarchs, dictators and centrally “ideologically” controlled nations. China has pushed its Green Dam and anti-blogging systems on its people, and recently added even more limitations to the Web: “But challenges in recent years to authoritarian governments around the globe and violent uprisings in parts of China itself have made Chinese officials increasingly wary of leaving such talk unchecked, especially on the Internet, the medium some officials see as central to fanning the flames of unrest…

“Sina.com and Netease.com — two of the nation’s biggest online portals — blocked keyword searches of the word ‘Egypt,’ though the mass protests were being discussed on some Internet chat rooms on Monday. Searching for ‘Egypt’ has also been blocked on Weibo, the Chinese equivalent of Twitter… Censoring the Internet is not the only approach. The Chinese government has also tried to get out ahead of the discussion, framing the Egyptian protests in a few editorials and articles in state-controlled news publications as a chaotic affair that embodies the pitfalls of trying to plant democracy in countries that are not quite ready for it — a line China’s leaders have long held.” New York Times, January 31^st.

But how much credibility does a regime lose when its official reports contradict what is common knowledge… information that leaks across the best-laid information censorship systems on earth? Willing recipients of fomenting communications are more likely to be responsive in dire economic segments – particularly where the promise of a future through education is dashed upon the sharp-edged rocks of economic malaise that seems to accompany power abuse and corruption at the top. Economic hope with solid evidence of good jobs is the best prophylactic against revolution I can think of… and suggest that the only solution to Middle Eastern rebellion is economic hope and prosperity, a lot to ask for in impaired economic times.

I’m Peter Dekom, and it is truly difficult to control the smell of smoke from a recent fire.