Saudi Duty

The less-than-subtle undercurrents in the recent shifting political power struggles have profoundly complicated consideration for America and her allies. While rebels in Libya may sing America’s praises, the sentiments against the U.S. seem to be on the rise. Egypt’s generals have gone so far as to question whether or not they really want U.S. aid, sensing too many strings and negative reactions from the people. Presses for democratic reform don’t always tilt in our favor; we have a pretty nasty reputation of having supported tyrants simply because they agree to tow our global policy lines, notwithstanding torture and repressive tactics against their own. America’s seemingly blind allegiance to Israel – not exactly a correct perception – also has moved popular sentiments against the United States. The “Arab Spring,” the era o f social and political change we have witnessed in the last few months, is one of the most significant global movements of the 21^st century.

Notwithstanding our track record, the Obama administration appears to be favoring democratic reform – whether it entails regime change such as we witnessed in Egypt and are seeing in Libya or simply acceptance of internal reform within existing governments such as in Bahrain. Skepticism abounds, because we have been on the wrong side for so long in the eyes of vast hordes of rebellious citizens in search of a new day. The next theater of change – the Kingdom of Jordan – sets a particularly clear example of the dichotomy of American politics.

Ultra-conservative Saudi Arabia, itself a Kingdom in which its rulers remain with an iron grip on every aspect of Saudi life, is pressuring neighboring Jordan’s West-leaning, King Abdullah II, to maintain his royal prerogatives and resist calls for him to cede power in the name of democratic reform: “Saudi Arabia is urging the Hashemite kingdom to stick to the kind of autocratic traditions that have kept the House of Saud secure for centuries, and Riyadh [the Saudi capital] has been piling up gifts at Abdullah's door to sell its point of view… The Saudis last month offered Jordan a coveted opportunity to join a wealthy regional bloc called the Gulf Cooperation Council, a move that would give the impoverished kingdom new investment, jobs and security ties. To sweeten the pot, the Saudis wrote a check for $400 million in aid to Amman two weeks ago, their first assistance in years.” Los Angeles Times, June 19^th.

But the Saudi efforts are the exact opposite of U.S. pressure, urging Abdullah to accept constitutional limitations on his authority and accept the introduction of true and meaningful democratic reform within his government. Local Jordanian demonstrations in favor of reform suggest that there is a rising groundswell of resistance to a continued royal autocracy, and if this increases in the near term, we could be watching open rebellion and perhaps a military repression – as is occurring in Syria – if the monarchy is to retain control. The Saudis believe that if Jordan’s King succumbs to pressure, they will be next.

The United States and Saudi Arabia have been among the staunchest allies in the region. Siding with the U.S. in our Iraqi and Afghanistan anti-terrorism efforts, and clearly hemming in a very hostile Iran on its northern border, the Saudis have protected the most productive oil fields on earth, keeping skyrocketing prices from escalating much farther by lobbying OPEC to increase supplies. But in Jordan, our interests could not be more at odds: “The quiet contest for Jordan is one sign of the rivalry that has erupted across the Middle East this year between Saudi Arabia and the United States, longtime allies that have been put on a collision course by the popular uprisings that have swept the region… ‘We do have a lot of friction there,’ said a U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. ‘The 'Arab Spring' has injected tension into the relationship.’

“The Obama administration has generally supported the protests, and urged the region's governments to share more power. But when President Obama demanded reform from Arab regimes in a major speech last month, he carefully avoided any mention of Saudi Arabia, an absolute monarchy that brooks little or no dissent… Riyadh, which believes the U.S. is turning its back on loyal allies, is trying to step out of America's shadow. It is embracing a foreign policy that often diverges from Washington's — and sometimes seeks to undermine it… The Saudis ‘are upset, they are frustrated, they are angry,’ said a former senior U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the Saudis' traditional reticence. ‘They don't know exactly what to do.’... A senior State Department official insisted that on security and energy issues, the alliance remains ‘rock solid.’”

We continue to supply military hardware to the Saudis and are equally caught between two worlds. But the world is changing, and the United States must grapple with its past mistakes as well as maintain relationships that maximize our own national security. It is awkward, will entail a period of adjustment, but the Saudis see this as a struggle for their very survival. We must find that elusive middle ground.

I’m Peter Dekom, and the Middle East remains among the most complex and vexing areas for political change involving Israel’s survival balanced against oil supplies that literally determine our economic future.