Ukraine Your Neck, I Cut It Off!

When the Soviet Union ceased to exist on December 26, 1991, 15 new nations were born (reborn?), although by far the biggest was the new Russian Republic (11 above, currently with approximately 144 million people). With about 46 million people, Ukraine (14 above) was leaning towards the neighboring growth areas of the European Union, and while the eastern section of that country is heavily ethnically Russian (where most of the nation’s 7.7 million ethnic Russians live), the call of Europe grew louder over the years.

What really rubbed salt in Ukrainian wounds was the alarming growth of neighboring Poland at it became a part of the European Union. Somehow, this former satellite even missed the big recession: “With much of Europe still struggling to recover from the impact of the 2008 financial crisis, Poland stands out as an unlikely island of economic success, a place where companies and individuals plan for growth rather than decline. In 2009, when the gross domestic product of the European Union contracted by 4.5 percent, Poland was the only country in the union to see its economy grow, by 1.6 percent. The EU economy as a whole remains smaller than it was at the beginning of 2009 and isn’t expected to recover its losses until the end of [2014].” Bloomberg, November 27^th.

Meanwhile, Ukraine – an agrarian economy with large natural gas reserves – was mired in steep economic decline. Its cash reserves gone, deeply in debt, it was clear that Ukraine was facing economic collapse absent extrinsic loans or cash infusions from somewhere “out there.” Russian President, Vladimir Putin, had long dreamed of some sort of new Eurasian bloc, led  of course by mother Russia, unified against China’s rising star, America’s seemingly unending economic and political power and, most of all, the lure of the West represented by the European Union (EU).

Putin’s vehicle of choice is the Eurasian Customs Union (ECU), a free-trade association binding Russia, Kazakhstan (6 above) and Belarus (3 above). As Ukraine entertained a new relationship with the EU, Putin felt a threat but also saw an opportunity to begin to implement his notion of regional hegemony with the promise of immediate financial aid… if Ukraine would turn away from the EU and back to mother Russia. The EU, facing its own economic issues, did not counter this “offer.”

“But Putin's plan is for the ECU to grow into a ‘powerful, supra-national union’ of sovereign states like the European Union, uniting economies, legal systems, customs services and military capabilities to form a bridge between Europe and Asia and rival the EU, the US and China by 2015… While he has described the end of the Soviet Union as ‘the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century,’ Putin denies he is seeking to resurrect it. The west is not so sure; former US secretary of state Hillary Clinton has described the Eurasian Union as ‘a move to re-Sovietise the region,’ adding ominously: ‘We know what the goal is.’”  The Guardian (UK), February 18^th.

Despite massive oil and gas reserves, untold mineral wealth and vast tracts of tundra slowly turning into new viable farmland as global warming begins to benefit Russia at the expense of most of the rest of the planet, Russia’s economy is stagnant and getting worse. Oligarchs and even middle-level businesses who didn’t play ball with Putin faced the crush of the Russian governmental fist, sometimes involving confiscation and imprisonment. Business leaders are fleeing Russia and finding ways to move whatever capital they can to safer countries. This image is not lost on the vast majority of Ukrainians, many of whom remember what it was like living under the Soviet boot.

Ukraine’s President Viktor F. Yanukovych is the man who bent and then broke under pressure from Moscow, returning his country to the Russian side of the equation. He switched off the entente to the EU. Believing that his country’s need for immediate financial aid trumped any aspiration to move to the West, he turned back to the Soviet empire, enraging too many for whom moving back to Russian hegemony was the worst possible alternative. Putin also believes that Russia’s own economic future depends heavily on the success of his expansion of the ECU. And Ukraine is considered an essential add to this union.

Ukrainian protests began and escalated. The incumbent Yanukovych regime, arguing that it was the legitimate elected government, pushed back. Protests turned violent, and the government reaction reacted with guns, killings and imprisonment for protestors, now labeled by Yanukovych and Putin as “terrorists.” The protestors escalated their violence – with their own guns, Molotov cocktails and throwing rocks. Barricades. The smell of burning tires cut through the air. Rubber bullets became real bullets. The country teetered on the brink of all-out civil war.

Putin blamed the uprising on Western interference, making covert threats and suggesting that Russia might intervene. Western Europe and the United States countered with threats that sanctions would attach to Ukrainian leaders responsible for unwarranted killings, beatings and imprisonment of innocent protestors. Visas for international travel were denied to many Ukrainian leaders. On February 17^th alone, the death toll hit 25.

Yanukovych partially succumbed to the pressure, and with the acquiescence of the protesters’ leaders, accepted a ceasefire and a general stand-down against the growing insurgency. But on February 18^th, the truce collapsed and violence reasserted itself. Civil war seemed unavoidable as representatives from Western foreign ministries rushed to Ukraine’s capital, Kiev, to try and find a peaceful solution to this train-wreck of a country.

“Also raising concerns was the fact that American officials have sought to contact senior Ukrainian military officials by phone and ‘nobody is picking up,’ a senior State Department official said. The United States has been warning against the imposition of a state of emergency ‘for months and months,’ the official said.

“Throughout the day on [February 18^th], thousands of Kiev residents braved the riot police and roaming bands of pro-government supporters to visit the besieged protest encampment in Independence Square, now a harrowing vista of charred buildings and smoldering debris… The residents brought supplies to the young men in masks and helmets who, for the authorities, are now the only true face of the country’s political tumult.

“With the subway system shut down, they walked, carrying bags of groceries, tires and scrap wood for the protesters’ protective ring of fire, and jerrycans of gasoline. Two middle-aged women walked nonchalantly down a central street of Kiev toward Independence Square, known as Maidan, pushing a shopping cart rattling with ready-made firebombs.

“The protesters are a hodgepodge of groups, some radical enough to alarm some European diplomats, who have been arguing for weeks over whether to impose sanctions on Ukrainian leaders, many of whom have assets outside the country. But few, if any, share Mr. Yanukovych’s — and also Russia’s — view that the government is simply a victim.” New York Times, February 19^th.

While most of the government’s reaction has been implemented through its police forces, the probability of full-on civil war seemed to increase as Yanukovych threated to declare a state of emergency, escalating the violence with these words from the Defense Ministry: “Military servants of the armed forces of Ukraine might be used in antiterrorist operations on the territory of Ukraine.” Assault weapons have now been widely issued to police, and real bullets are flying from both sides. The first day of post-truce deaths may have crossed the 100 mark, number that has been impossible to verify.

The U.S. reaction has been less-than-subtle: “President Barack Obama says the U.S. is outraged by violence in Ukraine and is urging President Viktor Yanukovych … to withdraw forces from downtown Kiev immediately… Obama says the U.S. urges Ukraine's military not to get involved in a conflict that must be resolved politically. He's expressing outrage about images of Ukrainian security forces firing automatic guns on Ukrainian people… Obama says in a statement that Ukraine should respect the right of protest and that protesters must be peaceful. He's calling for dialogue to reduce tensions and address the people's grievances.” Huffington Post, February 20^th.

As the Sochi Olympic Games played on, a war between Russia and the West raged in Ukraine, one that will impact global power alignments for decades to come. As Russian, EU ministers and representatives from both sides of the Ukrainian conflict wrangled all day and into the night on February 21^st, another accord – promising the early elections and constitutional reforms demanded by the protestors – offered a ray of hope to end the violence. Will it hold? Will the reforms be implemented? What exactly is Ukraine’s future? Last headline (Feb. 21^st, Huffington Post): “Thousands of protesters have remained in Kiev's main square despite a deal aimed at ending Ukraine's political crisis, in which dozens have died.”

I’m Peter Dekom, and every day diplomatic forays become explosions of military hardware as harsh conflicting political agendas escalate more quickly than ever.