Perhaps it’s an accident of geography, but in the United States, (i) foreign policy is almost never a factor in any elections, and (ii) the ignorance level of the vast majority of our elected representatives as to other cultures, religions and international politics is among the most pronounced of any major power in the world. After all, we have deep friendship with the only two nations we share a common border with – Canada and Mexico – and are separated from most of the rest of the world by seemingly endless expanses of ocean. Who cares about those distant lands? While we are a melting pot/lettuce bowl, the general rule is keep restrict ethnicity to your local community and in all other things, embrace old world, traditional white American values. Not to mention that to many Americans, the only major difference between English-speaking Canada (sorry Quebec, we don’t think about you much) and the U.S. is that they like hockey more than baseball.
To Latin America, Africa, Europe and Asia, where wars have raged over the centuries between and among tribes, nations and political factions, living side-by-side with countries that have different languages, political and cultural views, religious values and might have crossed swords in the past, the ability to bob and weave in global and regional politics is second nature. You can see that just about the only matter that is bandied about to solve America’s global confrontations is an emphasis on having a military that is larger than the next ten best-armed nations combined. We vote for sanctions on occasion, but even there Congressional back-talk is always about keeping our military options wide open. The thought of ignorant fools implementing foreign policy by military means is downright frightening.
Even when cabinet officers, such as State’s John Kerry and Defense’s Chuck Hagel, are clearly well-advised and backed by competent civil servant advisors, they are more frequently than not confronted by the ignorant fools in Congress, from both sides of the aisle, who get to vote on the necessary enabling legislation required to protect and advance American interests worldwide. To put it mildly, we are the equivalent of the Three Stooges of foreign policy, and despite the trillions of wasted dollars in failed conflicts (in lieu of diplomacy) like Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan that have decimated our treasury and exploded our federal deficit, most voters could care less. If Congress is ill-informed, the electorate is even less knowledgeable.
Enter Machiavelli… er… Vladimir Putin, a ruthless master tactician from a country where strategy has been a national pastime for centuries – from chess masters to the brilliant and self-imposed strategic brutality of Soviet Marshall Georgy Konstantinovich Zhukov, who lured Nazi troops deep into the Russian motherland, beyond the ability of their supply lines to support the attack and ultimately stranding German troops into severe exposure to Russian winter. As Soviet forces countered, Germany began to collapse.
Russia is happy to provide “peaceful intentions” verbiage that allows the world to find an anchoring justification, but nothing seems to stand in the way of Moscow’s getting what the dictator-du-jour is focused on achieving. Be it Syria or Ukraine. Knowing that they have an absolute U.N.-Security Council veto to render U.N. intervention impossible.
With the Russian economy horribly underperforming despite huge petroleum and natural gas reserves, Putin has been desperately in search of a new strategy (distraction?), one that will effectively reassemble at least the bigger surrounding CIS nations into an alliance that will (i) be dominated by Russian priorities, (ii) will be a viable precursor to a possible new U.S.S.R., and (iii) will pull these countries out of their march towards entente with Western Europe and the United States. And pitting Putin against a hapless United States governed by a slogan-mongering, saber-rattling U.S. Congress (in an era where Putin knows U.S. voters have no real interest in diplomatic or military power “over there”), is like putting a Little League baseball team against a professional MLB team.
Of the approximate 7.7 million ethnic Russians who live among a total of about 46 million people in Ukraine, the majority of these live in the eastern regions bordering Russia… and that little red peninsula extension in the Black Sea above (the Crimea), a republic that is mostly part of Ukraine. Russia, by treaty, has had access to the port city (and also the Crimean Republic’s capital city) of Simferopol, which is viewed as a vital area for the deployment of the Russian Navy. And as Russian forces took over local airports, released ground troops and have heavily-armed helicopter fly-overs, it was clear that Russian troops were, despite Putin’s pledges to the contrary, clearly being stationed in Ukrainian Crimea. Putin said simply he was within treaty limits and responding to the local Crimean government’s call for help. Oh, Russian troops are now firmly in control of the Crimea… all of it.
Here’s how it happened. “On 26 February 2014, thousands of pro-Russian and pro-Ukraine protesters clashed in front of the parliament building in Simferopol. On the same day Russian President Vladimir Putin put 2,000 Russian troops on alert along the Ukrainian border. The protests followed the ousting of the Ukraine President Viktor Yanukovych on 22 February 2014, and a push by many pro-Russian protesters for Crimea to secede from Ukraine and seek assistance from Russia.
“On 28 February 2014, Russian military forces occupied key posts, buildings, airports, and other assets in Crimea. The interim Government of Ukraine described the events as an invasion and occupation of Crimea by Russian forces. However, Crimean Prime Minister Sergey Aksyonov said he asserted sole control over Crimea's security forces and appealed to Russia ‘for assistance in guaranteeing peace and calmness’ on the peninsula. The Russian foreign ministry stated that ‘movement of the Black Sea Fleet armored vehicles in Crimea … happens in full accordance with basic Russian-Ukrainian agreements on the Black Sea Fleet.’
“On March 1, the Russian parliament granted President Vladimir Putin the authority to use military force in Ukraine. The international community widely condemned this move.” Wikipedia.
Will Russia’s actions force a partition of the ethnically Russian, eastern part of Ukraine, an event that would only further decimate a deeply-impaired, corrupt Ukrainian economy? “Put simply, Ukraine’s west is dependent on its east. The western regions remain dominated by agriculture, and what products Ukraine does export in large quantities – including steel, iron, and coal – come from the old industrial heartland in the east, in regions such as Donetsk and Luhansk. European demand for these products has been climbing, but production remains predominantly tied to Russian demand.” Christian Science Monitor, January 28th.
Here is the American position: “Obama said any military movements taken by Russia inside of Ukraine would be ‘deeply destabilizing…. [noting that the] Ukrainian people deserve the opportunity to determine their own future.’… Obama said the United States will stand with the international community, warning Russia ‘there will be costs’ for any military intervention in Ukraine.” Huffington Post, February 28th. Guess the Russians called his bluff!
Meanwhile, back in the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, “Tensions increased when Ukraine's acting president, Oleksandr Turchynov, made a late night announcement that he had ordered the country's armed forces to be at full readiness because of the threat of ‘potential aggression.’… Speaking live on Ukrainian TV, Turchynov he had also ordered stepped up security at nuclear power plants, airports and other strategic infrastructure.” AOL.com, March 1st.
Think Putin cares? Back in the summer of 2008, when one local province (South Ossetia) seceded from Georgia, Russian troops intervened, defeating and sending occupying troops into the former Soviet state. Who in the West remembers or cares? A new independent Ukraine keeping complete control of the eastern and Crimean regions? Can you hear the peals of laughter in Moscow? Ukraine has held back any armed response… because they’ll lose despite the above admonitions from Turchynov.
With a desperate near-term need for a capital infusion of $35 billion (including a purported $2.8 billion Ukrainian debt to Russian gas-producer giant, Gazprom), Ukraine is equally aware that it is going to take a combination of financial support that no one nation, region or organization can afford. Is Russia a necessary part of the solution? The U.S. offered to guarantee $1 billion in loans to Ukraine. Can you hear Putin’s laughter growing louder now? How does he lose this one? Checkmate!
I’m Peter Dekom, and I guess Putin had to wait until the Olympics, in Sochi that is also on the Black Sea, were over before making his big move.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment