Obama speaks of sanctions and isolation for Russian aggressors. Europe sits back, knowing it depends on Moscow’s natural gas and petroleum products to keep warm, moving and manufacturing… hoping it all will go away. And Western Europe sits, and sits, and sits. Putin, knowing the U.S. and the European Union are not remotely on the same page, called what he believed to be Obama’s bluff. He remembered in 2008, in the battle over secessionist South Ossetia from the nation of Georgia, the West sat idly by and let Russian troops have their way. So what, Putin figured, is the risk if I use my troops to seize the Crimea? A drama, and this too shall pass. So he invaded the Crimea, a strategic peninsula in the Black Sea. Intentionally sending a mixed message, Putin also ended the “exercises” of his 150,000 force in near the Ukrainian border.
My insider friends in Russia tell me Putin made his military moves on the Ukraine as a bluff to force the Ukrainian “rebels” to tow the Russian line, instilling fear in their Western-leaning hearts and compelling them to sit down with Moscow and negotiate a countervailing “new deal” favoring Russian interests. He was not about to see his dream of reuniting the core once-Soviet nations into a new union, one he believes essential to counter his own sinking economy.
Despite hints of a “surrender your bases” deadline for March 4th, denied by Moscow, Ukrainian forces – knowing that they would be crushed if Russia really went to war – stood pat and insisted that would defend their military compounds with force if attacked. A few bullets were fired in Crimea, but they were only warning shots fired by Russian soldiers, and the tension was instantly diffused on the ground. Putin’s bluff was called. Now what?
Secretary of State John Kerry flew to Ukraine as a show of U.S. support and to seek a stabilizing resolution. Putin then personally announced that Russia had a right to use force to protect ethnic Russians in either the Crimea or Eastern Ukraine and that, in any event, ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych (who requested Moscow’s military intervention as he fled to Russian safety) was still the only legally-empowered leader of that embattled nation. “It’s an unconstitutional overthrow and an armed seizure of power,” he said.
By treaty (the so-called he Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances signed in 1994 in exchange for Ukraine’s for giving up its nuclear weapons stockpile), Russia guaranteed Ukrainian territorial integrity and agreed to limit and divide its fleet, allocating only 20% of their overall naval capacity to the Black Sea, mostly older vessels with limited military value: “[Russian Black Sea Fleet’s] main vessel was basically built to fight other ships and so is only useful in fighting a naval war. It’s got the Moskva, an aging guided-missile cruiser; a large anti-submarine warfare cruiser — very dated; a destroyer and two frigates, which are more versatile; landing ships; and a diesel attack submarine. It’s not a particularly powerful force.” Washington Post, March 1st.
Still, the Crimea was firmly under Russian control. As Obama escalated his own rhetoric, saying that Russia “is on the wrong side of history” (a parroting of China’s leaders’ description of the United States), GOP leaders lambasted Obama’s “letting” Putin have his way by reason of his “feckless” (Republican Senator John McCain’s word) foreign policy. As if Obama had the slightest ability to challenge Russia’s priorities absent a serious direct military confrontation that Americans would never tolerate. One has to surmise that Putin took extra delight in baiting the United States, an effort that seems to be number one on his list of passionate hobbies.
Still, Russia is having its way with the Crimea, also effectively taking control of the mobile phone system and related wireless-usage. The March 4th Reuters reports: “Ukraine's telecommunications system has come under attack, with equipment installed in Russian-controlled Crimea used to interfere with the mobile phones of members of parliament, the head of Ukraine's SBU security service said on [March 4th]… ‘I confirm that an IP-telephonic attack is under way on mobile phones of members of Ukrainian parliament for the second day in row,’ Valentyn Nalivaichenko told a news briefing…. At the entrance to (telecoms firm) Ukrtelecom in Crimea, illegally and in violation of all commercial contracts, was installed equipment that blocks my phone as well as the phones of other deputies, regardless of their political affiliation…].”
As Americans were to compete in the nearby Sochi Paralympics, the official U.S. delegation withdrew from the competition in protest of Russia’s military efforts in Ukraine. While Vladimir Putin might have played his cards somewhat differently had he believed Ukrainian soldiers might actually fight back, he understood well the power of a Russian veto at the United Nations, the ambivalence of European leaders addicted to Russian fossil fuel and an American foreign policy that would have serious issues going it alone without strong European support. Raise you one and call. And he seemed to be taking particular delight in watching the United States squirm.
Threats of American or unlikely EU sanctions against Russia? “The impact of sanctions, if they were imposed, might be felt by other countries, too. In a tit-for-tat move, Russian lawmakers are drafting a law that would allow Russia to confiscate assets belonging to U.S. and European companies if sanctions are slapped on Moscow, Russian state media reported.” CNN.com, March 5th.
The Russian rouble tanked against the U.S. dollar as the American stock market plunged on the news of the Russian attack… but our market recovered a day later. The rouble did not. In the end, will economics trump Putin’s expansionist, anti-American dreams? Will the military effort end peacefully or escalate? How long will it take the rest of the world to move on and forget how Russia behaved? Putin remained angrily defiant.
I’m Peter Dekom, and no matter how much we might wish to go it alone these days, we have neither the budget nor the appetite to do so.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment