When Oil Means a Little Less

For naïve citizens who believe that American foreign policy is predicated on fighting for the betterment of mankind, the spread of democracy and opposing evil dictators, it is hard to look at our long-standing support for some of the most brutal regimes on earth, totalitarian monarchies and dictators, repressive government with torture, censorship and an iron hand over their people. It is equally difficult to disassociate American support of such callous governments without looking at a map showing strategic placement or vast pools of valuable natural resources.

If there is any region on earth that represents the best and worst of American policy initiatives, it has to be the Middle East. Partially responsive to a long-standing constituency of supporters of Israel (which most certainly extends way beyond America’s tiny Jewish population – under 6 million according to recent census data or less than 2% of the total) but more particularly attuned to regional oil reserves, the American presence in Iraq and its strong support for Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, etc. has most definitely not been based on altruism. Strangely, after our rather dramatically failed efforts in Iraq (reinforced with every bomb blast in this sad nation), non-U.S. companies are the ones who came out of that conflict with most of the relevant oil rights.

We have supplied the Saudi monarchy with the latest tanks, jet fighters and missile systems to protect this sovereign nation, which shares an extensive border with Iraq and Kuwait, against regional chaos and, most importantly, the Saudis malevolent neighbor on the other side of the Persian Gulf – Iran. Saudis have a deep fundamentalist Sunni literal interpretation of the Qur’an and consider the Iranian Shiite view of the Qur’an, as a mystical book which only the highest prelates are capable of discerning, as blasphemy of the highest order. If there is hatred by the Saudis for any nation in the Middle East, it is not the tiny Jewish state of Israel that draws most of their wrath… it is demonic Iran with what the Saudis believe is a deeply distorted view of Islam. As protectors of the faith (they control Mecca, which every Muslim faithful must visit at least once as their commitment to Islam), Saudis see Iran as a very real mega-threat not only to the region in general but to the Saudis in particular.

As the United States has fostered an increasing level of engagement and détente with Iran, attempting to diffuse a rogue state with near-term nuclear capacity, the Saudis have been sweating bullets. As the United States has encouraged the regional uprisings born of the Arab Spring, the Saudis – as conservative incumbents with no semblance of democracy – feel somewhat abandoned by the United States. Nevertheless, wanting to be on the right side of history, the Saudi government has severed relations with the Assad regime in Syria and has leaned strongly in support of the Sunni-led rebellion against this Shiite-friendly (and pro-Iranian) leader. But as the United States sits on the sidelines, literally hamstrung into inaction from domestic pressure groups, the Saudis feel that the Middle East is no longer an American priority.

American policy in Egypt has also left the United States “between a rock and a hard place,” with very few strategic options. Embracing Mohammed Morsi’s Presidency (as the elected leader), the United States was sideswiped by the coup that toppled him. So we are pretty much on the sidelines, watching the chaos emerge. Hardly a nation that truly embraces democratic inclusion, the new Egyptian military leadership has crushed the Muslim Brotherhood, the party that elected Morsi. The Saudis weren’t completely comfortable with Morsi, and they are now a major source of aid for the new regime.  Still, the U.S. sits tight.

Fracking has loosed massive oil reserves in the United States, suggesting that someday America might even be able claim its 1960s status of the largest oil producer on earth, eclipsing even Saudi Arabia. Friendly oil from neighboring Mexico and Canada also differentiate the American (in)dependence on/from “foreign oil” and other fossil fuels that plagues Europe and much of the rest of the world. But as our dependence on international oil reserves dwindles – and make no mistake, global oil prices fluctuate everywhere based on global issues – the Saudis see their importance fading from the American list of priorities.

So at the end of March, President Obama traveled to Saudi Arabia to address these Saudi policy concerns: “US President Barack Obama has held talks with Saudi King Abdullah, amid long-running tension over Iran's nuclear programme and Syria's conflict. After the meeting in Riyadh, the White House hailed the ‘strong relationship’ the US enjoyed with Saudi Arabia.

“The Saudis have been frustrated by what they see as the West's failure to tackle Syria's government, and the US willingness to negotiate with Iran… It was Mr Obama's first trip to Saudi Arabia in almost five years.” BBC.co.uk, March 29^th.

But everyone can see how American popular opinion is also pressuring the U.S. to pull back on risky confrontations, efforts that could stretch our military budget to the breaking point. And it’s no secret that our foreign policy is very much driven by our need to access precious natural resources… and the Saudis have not missed the obvious. Practical reality makes the United States a partner in global diplomacy, not the controller of it anymore. The Saudis are now aware that they might need to consider making a few new friends that might not exactly sit well with the U.S.

I’m Peter Dekom, and this complex period of global power realignment has been nothing but awkward and difficult for stumbling American policy-makers.