Surrounded

 

For Israel, the world’s Middle Eastern focus has rapidly shifted away from that beleaguered state to the ISIL onslaught and everything related to that powerful demonic military surge. With most of Gaza in shambles, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s rather abysmal recent failure to convince the world that nuclear-prone Iran is a far greater threat that the ISIL and its “pick-up trucks with machine guns,” Israel once again confronts the fact that it is surrounded with malevolence. Even its staunch ally, the United States is distracted. Distrust and negativity have marked Netanyahu’s relationship with the Obama administration. Partly over the U.S. détente with Iran and partly over Israel’s continue efforts to build more Jewish settlements on the West Bank.

Even with its treaty-neighbor in Egypt, the threats from instability in the Sinai (Egyptian) send shivers down military planners. “Security forces face an Islamist insurgency that has killed hundreds of soldiers and policemen since the army toppled [Egypt’s] President Mursi of the Muslim Brotherhood last year after mass protests against his rule. Most attacks have been in Sinai.”  Reuters, October 24th.  That the violent Sunni al-Nusra faction (another extreme al Qaeda affiliate) is gaining traction among Syrian rebels, that Hezbollah continues to press for control of Lebanon (politically and militarily) – a nation hopelessly fractured and spinning out of control even as ISIL casts its eye towards this small country as well – creates the kind of instability that threatens Israel’s very existence.

Egypt, Syria, Lebanon – border countries – are severe issues for Israel. Gaza is temporarily side-tracked with destruction, and the West Bank Palestinians are courting the earth finding diplomatic recognition a seemingly winnable near-term goal. Bleak from an Israeli perspective. But there is one country I have not discussed. Jordan.

Meanwhile, a progressive and Western-educated regional leader, Jordanian King Abdullah II ibn al-Hussein, faces a nation lacking the oil-resources of its neighbors with drought-levels rising to serious and notions of unrest from extremists within his own borders.  But most Jordanians join their King in hoping to avoid military confrontation with just about anyone, including their neighbor Israel. It is, however, a delicate balance, and King Abdullah’s “western ways” have alienated him from some of the most traditional segments of his society.

“Around 2,000 Jordanians have gone to join militant groups in Syria, one of the largest contingents of foreign fighters, with concerns that at least some will return home radicalized. Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who sowed chaos in Iraq and inspired the emergence of Islamic State, came from Zarqa in northern Jordan.

“As well as poor tribal communities, the kingdom is home to an estimated 3-4 million Palestinians, more than half its total population. Most have been registered as refugees for 65 years, share family ties with the 2.6 million Palestinians in the West Bank and yearn for a return to what was Palestine… [Jordan] has also taken in more than one million people displaced by the wars in Iraq and Syria, putting huge strain on resources and government finances, to the frustration of many Jordanians.” Reuters, October 22nd.

Indeed, Jordan (also a staunch U.S. ally – Obama and Abdullah are pictured above) is equally in fear of some of the same regional forces that likewise threaten Israel. And as those threats rise from both inside and outside Jordan, the desire to confront Israel as well is almost non-existent. For both Jordan and Israel, peaceful co-existence – perhaps more – is in the best interests of both nations. The 1979-implemented peace treaty between Egypt and Israel, not a perfect relationship by any means, has still gone a long way to neutralize a very large potential regional tinderbox. A 1994 Israeli accord with Jordan has helped as well.

Economic and political ties seem to be strengthening as Jordan and Israel each see a commonality of interests between those nations, particularly given the common destabilizing enemies they both face. But sometimes, given its rather large Palestinian population, Jordan has to take tough public positions against Israel that might suggest otherwise. It becomes necessary to look at the actions and not the words, although obvious tensions will continue to plague this relationship.

“On the economic front, trade has picked up and Israel recently agreed to supply Jordan with natural gas in a deal estimated at $15 billion, although Jordanian businessmen say a lack of progress on peace between Israel and the Palestinians has held back commercial ties… ‘Jordan wants its relationship with Israel, it just doesn't want to talk about its relationship with Israel,’ is how one Israeli diplomat put it.

“Jordanian officials were not immediately available for comment. They often express strident criticism of Israel, citing the high civilian death toll during the war against Hamas in Gaza as an example of action they say fuels the very extremism the Israeli government fears… ‘If we as a Jordanian state in cooperation with an Arab and Islamic coalition are fighting extremism within Islam, and the Israelis are killing our people in Gaza and Jerusalem every five minutes, then this is a problem,’ King Abdullah said on [October 20th].” Reuters. Whatever the tensions, the path to peace and stability between these nations, perhaps born out of necessity, is are increasing clear and in everyone’s best interest.

I’m Peter Dekom, and even in the Middle East there are shades of good news if you just take the time to look.