He's Baaaack!

The huge Muslim portion of Iraq's 31+ million population is split roughly 2/3 Shiite and 1/3 Sunni, a religious distinction of overwhelming political import. The Kurds in the north represent a mixture of religious beliefs – including some Christians – but they seem to be moving towards increasing autonomy from the regime in Baghdad. When Sunni Saddam Hussein was in power, that faith was clearly in the driver's seat; with his fall and the implementation of a new constitution that embraced a more democratically representative government, Shiite power rippled across the land. While Shiites are an overall 15% minority in the Islamic world, in Iran/Iraq, they are by far the dominant power. Historically, there has been an intense and often violent rivalry between Sunnis – who believe i n the literal word of the Qur'an – and Shiites – who believe it is mystical book that can only be interpreted by the highest level of Shiite clerics.

In contemporary Iraq, Sunnis are feeling disenfranchised… powerless in the new government of Shiite Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki. This humiliation has provided fodder for a resurgence of Sunni-based al Qaeda and other militant Sunni attacks (including a large number of the recent bombings) against Shiite targets. With the United States engaged in the final stages of withdrawal, an old U.S. nemesis – Shiite militant cleric Moktada al-Sadr – is now the "new kid" on the block, back from a three year plus period of self-imposed exile in the shelter of his greatest support system – Iran. Al-Sadr legendary militia, the Mahdi Army, was attacked by the Iraqi army, and he left Iraq for the Iran's holy city of Qum in 2008, where he has remained in residence until now. But in the mysterious world of Iraqi politics, allies become enemies and allies again. Al-Maliki and al-Sadr have been at war… and most recently, they have been seen chumming together. And even though al-Sadr stands accused of killing a rival cleric in 2007, there is no arrest warrant outstanding for that accusation… at this time.

That al-Sadr's candidates won the second largest bloc of Shiite votes in the 2009 election (behind al-Maliki's faction) is significant… that al-Sadr also threw his weight behind al-Maliki's government is exceptionally interesting (but note the "strings" discussed below)… however, that he has returned in the year that the United States is expected to withdraw its forces may be the most telling of all. Al-Sadr has never been supportive of the U.S. involvement in his country at any level, and his anti-Sunni attacks (black-clad death squads of 2006-7) in the days preceding his departure from Iraq in 2008 have many Sunnis squirming with unease at his physical return. Those "strings"? "Mr. Sadr’s support for the prime minister came with a high price: hundreds of his followers were released from prison, and the movement was given leadership of a province, positions in the security forces and control of some ministries." New York Times, January 5^th.

But al-Sadr is capable of raising a militia with a wave of his charismatic hand. His parliamentary bloc makes him a clear rival to al-Maliki in future elections, if the fragile Iraqi political system remains intact to have future elections; it took from March to November for the nation to settle the results of the March 7^th parliamentary elections, as Iraqi courts and the electoral commission battled to established whether candidates were or were not qualified to stand for office. For the United States, al-Sadr's return represents a serious challenge to the U.S.-influenced constitutional government and a profound increase in the power being exercised over Iraq from neighboring Iran.

In his 28 minute comeback speech on January 8^th, al-Sadr “ suggested he could withdraw … support for Mr. Maliki [with a hint that this may even apply to the very structure of the current political system] if the government fails to address the most basic complaints of daily life here, particularly for the disenfranchised he claims to represent — shoddy roads, dirty water, leaking sewage and, that motif of post-Saddam Hussein Iraq, persistent blackouts…But Mr. Sadr urged patience from his followers, and at the very least, his words seemed to mean Mr. Maliki’s new government would have a grace period to act.

“‘We haven’t put a deadline on the government,’ said Hazem al-Araji, a prominent lieutenant of Mr. Sadr’s. ‘We’re watching how it progresses, and after that we’ll decide.’” New York Times, January 8^th. But most of all, his speech was clearly anti-American, demanding a 100% withdrawal of all U.S. forces by the end of 2011, not just combat forces as slated now: “‘What’s up? Are you scared of the Americans?’ Mr. Sadr asked the crowd from a 25-foot -high pulpit, draped in black, as he led them in a chant of ‘No, no to America.’” The NY Times. His statement was definitely a crowd-pleaser.

I'm Peter Dekom, and nothing threatens the survival of the Iraqi government more than pressures to push the country towards a Shiite-ruled Islamic republic… with violent potential retaliation from the Sunnis likely to be repressed.