Hezbollah Strikes Again – Politically

Hezbollah is considered a terrorist organization with which the United States will not deal. Born of violent militancy, Hezbollah is a Shiite Islamist movement, heavily backed by Iran, and exceptionally hostile to Israel and the United States. It is also the party that has just taken power (replacing a pro-American regime) and placed a prime minister, Harvard-educated telecommunications billionaire and also former prime minister, Najib Miqati (above, who is actually a Sunni Muslim, a turncoat to the vast majority of Lebanese Sunnis), atop Lebanon’s parliament. Recently considered an American ally, Lebanon represents a continuing movement of Middle Eastern nations away from the moderating influences of the West towards a darker side of extremist Muslim organizations.

While Miqati will form a coalition government that will dilute Shiite extremist influence, Lebanon is very much Syria’s and Iran’s playground – and they play vigorously; the United States and its regional allies – notably Saudi Arabia and Egypt – have decreasing power. Miqati struck a conciliatory tone upon his election: “My hand is extended to all Lebanese, Muslims and Christians, in order to build and not to destroy.” He has suggested that he will not be an anti-American as most believe he has to be: “We cannot afford to have an enemy,” he noted. But the tea leaves suggest a dangerous shift. With Lebanon sitting on Israel’s northern flank, what happens in this little Mediterranean nation can have significant repercussions in the fading prospects for regional peace and security. A quote from a local leader in the January 24^th New York Times summarizes this situation well: “‘The country is moving from one stage to another, from one approach to another,’ declared Michel Aoun, a Christian leader and key ally of Hezbollah.” Expect local politicians to continue separating themselves from anything that smacks of American influence or policy.

Already, Sunni groups – who remain hostile to the Shiite interpretation of their faith and the political movements that back them – have begun protests, some of which have turned quite violent: “By nightfall [on the January 23^rd] , angry opponents of Hezbollah took to the streets in parts of Beirut, Tripoli and other cities, burning tires, shouting slogans and offering at least an image of what many feared Hezbollah’s victory might unleash: strife among communities in a country almost evenly divided over questions of foreign patrons; posture toward Israel; and the relative power of Lebanon’s Shiite Muslims, represented by Hezbollah, and its Sunni foes… Acrid smoke billowed into a nighttime sky, as barricades temporarily blocked some roads into Beirut before security forces dispersed the demonstrators… ‘Down with Hezbollah! Down with Miqati!’ young men shouted in Beirut.” NY Times.

By the 25^th, Sunni Muslims backing the losing candidate, caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri (who is backed by the U.S.), took to the streets in a second “day of popular anger” – roadblocks and burning tires marked the rage that threaten to bring down a government before it is even installed. Lebanon’s system of government is called “confessionalism” (where designated elective governmental posts must be filled by a person of a specified faith – the prime minister, for example, must be Sunni). But this Sunni – Maqati – was a Sunni only in an exceptionally technical sense to the protesters; he represents a powerful militant Shiite political party that is an anathema to the majority of “true” Sunnis.

Lebanon – a nation where I spent over four years as the teenage son of a U.S. diplomat – once featured a Christian majority, a currency backed 85% with gold, a polyglot culture where almost half the people spoke fluent French, an open and tolerant society where an occasional synagogue invited Jewish faithful in neighborhoods with mosques and churches nearby and a prosperous community where poverty was seldom an issue. The influx of Palestinian refugees, a civil war that raged out of control – on and off for decades starting in the 1970s – Syrian interference both militarily and politically (Syria is charged with orchestrating the 2005 assassination of a prime minister who refused to play ball with Damascus) left Lebanon in shambles, with many wealthy business people and professionals leaving the country, and taking both their money and their skills with them. Militant extremists streamed in. Israel and Hezbollah battled each other briefly in the region in 2006, and Israel didn’t live up to its former military glory in that struggle. U.N. forces couldn’t bring stability, and while there are periods of tranquility, most here realize that they are unsustainable; the hostility and the negative feelings of one faction against another just run too deep.

After the above assassination, “On 13 December 2005, the Government of the Republic of Lebanon requested the United Nations to establish a tribunal of an international character to try all those who are alleged responsible for the attack of 14 February 2005 in Beirut that killed the former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri [Saad’s father] and 22 others. Pursuant to Security Council resolution 1664 (2006), the United Nations and the Lebanese Republic negotiated an agreement on the establishment of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon… The mandate of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon is to prosecute persons responsible for the attack of 14 February 2005 resulting in the death of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri and in the death or injury of other persons. The Tribunal’s jurisdiction could be extended beyond the 14 February 2005 bombing if the Tribunal finds that other attacks that occurred in Lebanon between 1 October 2004 and 12 December 2005 are connected in accordance with the principles of criminal justice and are of a nature and gravity similar to the attack of 14 February 2005.” From the Tribunal’s Website (stl-tsl.org/).

Will the new government cooperate with the Tribunal? “I am not going to make any move against the tribunal without full Lebanese consensus,” says Miqati. Will Syrian and Iran battle each other within this small country… or unite in their own ugly anti-American coalition. Can this new Hezbollah prime minister create a viable and effective government that can stabilize Lebanon? Take a wild guess. The only thing we know for sure is that the politics of the Middle East is rapidly tearing away from American influence. Notwithstanding the fact that Miqati was educated in the U.S., don’t expect his politics to be friendly towards the West. The official U.S, reaction to his appointment: “As we see what this new government does, we will judge it accordingly,” noted Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.

The United States is now viewed by increasing numbers of people in the region, not just with the hostility of being Israel’s ally or that we have forces deployed in theaters of war in several Muslim countries, but with the disdain of a nation beset with problems linked to Wall Street greed and unable to prevail in any military conflicts in the region to which it has committed its troops. They see us as a failing superpower in steep decline, one not worthy of the same levels of consideration as in the past… they are creating what they believe will be a new Muslim force that will have its own, perhaps superior (in their eyes) power.

As they interpret history, they crushed the Soviets… still dominating the headlines as the recent suicide bombing at a crowded Moscow airport will attest… and they believe that we too will fall. We all know that the United States will be here very long after the Hezbollah government in Lebanon itself fails, but remember, it is often the thought that counts… emboldening those who oppose us. Tell that to the mobs of young Muslim fundamentalists trying to topple Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak through violent demonstrations, the rioting crowds in Tunisia frustrating the government from recovering from the recent forced abdication or the new militant protesters in Yemen.

I’m Peter Dekom, and we can get so caught up in our own pain that we miss the vectors of change overseas that will seriously impact our political future for decades to come.