Raptor-Like Rapture

It looks like an F-22 Raptor, America's premier new stealth fighter. It stealths like a Raptor; it's missile capable, can refuel in mid-air and has sufficient range to fly well outside of… er… China's borders on who-knows-what missions, but it – the "J-20" – comes from a country that military analysts have long believed was at least one full generational-cycle behind Western and Russian military technology. And as Defense Secretary Robert Gates heads to Beijing this weekend to meet with his PRC counterparts (and hopefully repair some pretty-strained relations), begosh and begorrah, somehow… somehow… the basic tech specs and photographs of the J-20 miraculously appear in the global press.

Coincidence? Yeah, right! "After years of top-secret development, the jet — China’s first stealth plane — was put through what appear to be preliminary, but also very public, tests this week on the runway of the Aviation Design Institute in Chengdu, a site so open that aircraft enthusiasts often gather there to snap photos." New York Times, January 6th.

But, as peace-fans repeat often, China had declared it really didn't want to mount an arms race with the United States. Er… ah… well… "[A]fter years of denials that it has any intention of becoming a peer military power of the United States, it is now unveiling capabilities that suggest that it intends, sooner or later, to be able to challenge American forces in the Pacific… Besides the J-20, a midair-refuelable, missile-capable jet designed to fly far beyond Chinese borders, the Chinese are reported to be refitting a Soviet-era Ukrainian aircraft carrier — China’s first such power-projecting ship — for deployment as soon as next year." NY Times. Ooops!

Why would a nation that is competitive with the United States in almost every possible way decide to let the U.S. have its military way with China, able to push her around with the flick of an after-burner switch? Get real! National egos magic individual egomaniacs pale by comparison… and until 500 or so years ago, China seriously was the most powerful nation on the planet. And since the Chinese word for China is often politely translated as the "Middle Kingdom," perhaps you might like my read on what I think it really means: center of the earth, #*(&^%!

Indeed, the Peoples Liberation Army has more men, they have pretty sophisticated missile systems (even powerful rockets), modern weapons of every kind as well as the ability to deploy missile-armed drones on the field of combat plus a tad more: "The [PRC] military’s nuclear deterrent, estimated by experts at no more than 160 warheads, has been redeployed since 2008 onto mobile launchers and advanced submarines that no longer are sitting ducks for attackers. Multiple-warhead missiles are widely presumed to come next. China’s 60-boat submarine fleet, already Asia’s largest, is being refurbished with super-quiet nuclear-powered vessels and a second generation of ballistic-missile-equipped subs… And a widely anticipated antiship ballistic missile, called a 'carrier-killer' for its potential to strike the big carriers at the heart of the American naval presence in the Pacific, appears to be approaching deployment." NY Times.

While the U.S. still spends 40% of the earth's military expenditures, shifting economic sands, a dollar with a long way to fall and a new deficit-driven austerity hints of a future where Chinese technology and deployable weapon systems serious match or challenge U.S. capability. While I doubt (hope?) that these two superpowers don't ever have to find out how each would fare against the other, on the diplomatic front, having shiny new weapons and lots of them often dictates the diplomatic result.

Still, as U.S. and South Korean forces recently engaged in "let me show you how strong I am" joint military exercises in the Yellow Sea pretty close to the border with North Korea, China sent a pretty direct message to Washington for the U.S. not to play in their yard (sphere of influence). While the lesson was for the North Korean leadership that had recently shelled a populated S. Korean island which is the subject of a territorial dispute, the naval exercise required a massive American presence very close to the Chinese mainland. And the U.S. is simply going to have to get used to a new soldier on the block with a very fat wallet. Likewise, China is about to learn how expensive and frustrating it really is to enhance diplomatic agendas with military might… sometimes, you get sucked into regional conflicts for indeterminate periods of time simply because you can. Argh!!!!! Welcome to the club, China… welcome to the club.

I'm Peter Dekom, and the plusses and minuses of becoming a global policeman are profoundly misunderstood.