Hu's on First

?

Hey, who's on next? Chairman Hu Jintao's visit to the United States was both symbolic and substantive… but the visit may be his last as China's leader; his tenure runs through 2012, at which time he must step down. Trained as a hydraulics engineer, Chairman Hu (pictured above left) has brought a strong but steady "practical" conservatism to his office: "Hu possesses a low-key and reserved leadership style. His rise to the presidency represents China's transition of leadership from old, hard-core communists to younger, more pragmatic technocrats. Since his ascendancy, Hu has reinstated certain controls on the economy relaxed by the previous administrati on, and has been highly conservative in his attitude to political reforms. In foreign policy, Hu advocates for an approach termed 'China's peaceful development,' pursuing soft power in international relations. Through Hu's tenure, China's global influence in Africa, Latin America, and other developing countries has increased." Wikipedia

Hu has a legacy opportunity to impact the long-term relationship with the United States, but tension between the two countries continues – over our perpetual desire to see China improve its human rights stance (they view political activism like an horrific virus), our military support for Taiwan (the Republic of China, which the Peoples Republic claims is nothing more than its own territory), the fact that China keeps its currency forcefully devalued against the dollar to encourage U.S. consumers to keep buying its products (and not buy American-made goods) in addition to other trade barriers that impair our ability to transact business in China, the PRC's ineffective attempts to reign in piracy of America's intellection property and China's strong objections concerning U.S. military activity (most recently in support of South Korea after the North shelled a disputed i sland) in what China perceives to be its neighborhood. Hu's recent visit was part of a joint attempt by both countries to effect new channels of cooperation and communication, even as they "agree to disagree" on many substantive issues.

Hu can leave a legacy of improved Sino-American relations… or he can push China further to the top of the global economy in defiance of American interests. Undoubtedly, he will do "a bit of both." But his time to make that mark is rapidly running out. And this little excerpt from the January 21^st New York Times may provide a hint as to China’s new “attitude” towards the US: “The Treasury Department estimated that China reduced its holdings of Treasuries by nearly $11 billion in November alone. For the 12 months through November… China reduced its holdings of Treasuries by more than $36 billion.” They’re bailing… Hmmm… a big deficit economy with one big buyer apparently leaving the market for U.S. debt. Which brings me to the next big question: Who is likely to succeed Hu? Until very recently, the byzantine Chinese political system made guessing the likely successor a fool's game, but recent signs – the kind of precursors to power we have witnessed in the past – suggest that a probable choice has emerged: Xi Jinping, China's Vice-President.

57-year-old Xi (pictured above right) has been outspoken about corruption – a huge drag on China's overall aspirations – and is considered more liberal than Hu, but is also heavily focused on growth and economic reform. With an undergraduate degree in Marxist theory and graduate training as a chemical engineer, the latter at the same prestigious university where Chairman Hu received his degree (Tsinghua), Xi "currently serves as the top-ranking member of the Secretariat of the Communist Party of China, the country's Vice President, Vice-Chairman of the Central Military Commission [see below], Principal of the Central Party School and the 6th ranked member of the Politburo Standing Committee, China's de facto top power organ." Wikipedia. In mid-October, Xi was accorded those additional military responsibilities (vice-chairman of the party’s Central Military Commission; Hu is chairman), very much tracking Hu's own path of ascension to power.

Perhaps as a sign of his political astuteness, Xi has played it close to the vest, since it doesn't take much to derail a candidacy to one of the most import power positions on earth, easily rivaling that of the President of the United States. The October 18, 2010 Economist opines: "Like Mr Hu before him, Mr Xi has given few clues as to his political views. While all top-level leaders share a dedication to ensuring economic growth, social stability and the party’s firm grip on power, there are differences of opinion among them on a variety of policy issues. Chief among these are questions concerning the appropriate degree of government involvement in the economy; the degree to which even small amounts of political liberalisation should be tolerated; and the appropriate balance between the interests of China’s upper and lower classes, and its urban and rural citizens. Mr Xi has largely clung to the centre ground in these debates, so far as public pronouncements reveal them."

It's hard for most Americans to believe that the personality of China's next leader will have much of an impact on their daily lives, but it will. Not only is China a giant exporter into the U.S. economy – creating a massive trade imbalance – but their purchase “to date” of U.S. debt instruments has created a combined currency reserve of over $2 trillion held by the PRC. Their military is accelerating into super-modernity, a clear challenge to America's supremacy in this quadrant (see my Raptor-Like Rapture blog on January 7^{t h}), and they're sucking up commodities (see my It’s the Lease We Can Do blog on December 29^th) as their standard of living rises… pressuring rising prices from oil to foodstuffs across the board. China's labor force is increasingly educated, bringing them in head-to-head competition with America's "high-value-added" creativity. In short every aspect of American life is likely to be impacted by China and her policies… and the personality of the captain of that ship is an essential ingredient in our future.

I'm Peter Dekom, and learning about China's next leader should be on everyone's list of "things to do."