I-Ran So Far

To put it mildly, daily existence in Iran is filled with shortages, soaring prices and a dearth of economic hope. The nation’s leaders, the real leaders at the top, Ayatollahs, see themselves as keepers of the faith – the bastion of Shiite power, a 15% Muslim minority in a sea where 85% of practitioners of Islam are Sunnis. They appear be more concerned with their place as a world power than the suffering of their common citizens.

Look at their geographic position. Thanks to American stupidity, removing the Sunni government that contained the Shiite faction, Iran has neighboring Iraq (65% Shiite) squarely within their sphere of influence. The Shiite-linked Assad regime in Syria (which has received serious military support from Tehran), rulers over a significant majority of Sunnis, completes their link to the Mediterranean. With a sympathetic contingent of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran has its loyalties well in line. Their own country directly borders the Caspian Sea, the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea. Not bad for a tiny portion of the Islamic faith.

With 68% of the world’s Shiite minority in this particular region of the world, Iran is otherwise surrounded by Sunni antagonists, from hardliners in Saudi Arabia, Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and Sunni powers in Egypt and virtually all of North Africa, Turkey, Jordan and the hated Jewish state, Israel, the Ayatollahs have a pretty strong reason to balance their Islamic minority status with nuclear weapons. As most shot-callers in the biggest American street gangs can tell you, it’s all about respect.

The sanctions have crushed the local standard of living. “The Iranian economy was already struggling under the weight of corruption, mismanagement and costly food, energy and cash subsides for the poor when the U.S. and Europe broadened economic sanctions against Iran to include its crucial oil and banking sectors in late 2011.

“Oil sales plummeted by about 1.5 million barrels per day, depriving Iran of about $80 billion since early 2012, according to the White House. At the same time, much of the revenue Iran did earn from exports to a few Asian countries that were allowed to buy Iranian oil remained out of the country. The sanctions required oil buyers to pay into locked bank accounts that Iran can access only to purchase non-sanctioned goods or humanitarian supplies.

“Manufacturers found it increasingly difficult to buy crucial components to make products or keep factories running. Inflation and unemployment soared and Iran's national currency, the rial, lost more than half its value… [Newly elected Iranian President, Hassan] Rouhani, in an address delivered this week on the occasion of his first 100 days in office, said the Iranian economy contracted 6 percent in the last year. He pledged to halt the recession by March of next year and reduce inflation to 25 percent by the end of next year.” Huffington Post, November 28^th. Hassan cannot do anything that the Ayatollahs do not approve.

But the Ayatollahs know that a perpetually economically impaired populace can transition to the kind of open rebellion that seems to be threatening their Syrian allies. Is there a breath of common sense in the air? Or an act of desperate self-preservation that will turn back when things “get better”?

The exchange of vows between the Western negotiators and Iran, a transition to deeper commitments from anticipated continuing discussions, has produced little for either side. A commitment not to build nuclear weapons, an hiatus in the enrichment program, plus more open inspections against a pretty tiny release in economic sanctions. Stuff like letting Iran access banks outside the country where money long-since earned from oil sales lies on deposit, getting a right to insure shipments again with a little more access to secure needed supplies… just a little (more below). But enough to send the Saudi monarchy and Israel into panic mode. They just do not believe that Iran will stop doing much of anything. Exactly how minor are the sanctions being eased that are on the table right now?

“The Obama Administration estimates relief from some sanctions in exchange for a temporary pause in Iran's nuclear enrichment program will amount to just $7 billion. That's a meager amount for the economy of a nation of nearly 80 million people — it's less than one month's worth of Iran's oil production and just 7 percent of Iran's overseas cash that remains frozen under the sanctions… Still, Iranians see the move as a much needed step toward a more normal economy after years of crippling inflation and job losses…

“The White House says the nuclear deal keeps in place ‘the overwhelming majority of the sanctions regime.’ Almost all of Iran's approximately $100 billion in foreign exchange holdings remains inaccessible or restricted by sanctions… That means for the vast majority of Iranians, the deal will do little to alleviate the cost of daily life. Inflation hovers around 35 percent, pushing the price of goods ever higher. Officially, unemployment is around 13 percent, though that number is widely thought by experts to be much higher.

“‘Iran will continue to bleed financially,’ said risk consultancy Eurasia Group in a report… But sanctions will be suspended on gold and precious metals, Iran's auto sector and petrochemical exports. Restrictions on oil exports will get no tighter, as they were slated to, and restrictions on insurance were loosened, which will help make it easier for Iran to sell the oil it can. The agreement also gives Iran's aviation industry a boost by allowing airlines to buy needed parts.” Huffington Post. Good for the world or a trap for the unwary? What’s your opinion?

I’m Peter Dekom, and change sometimes surprises even the proponents.