The Coming Cold War

I’ve blogged about the August 2007 submarine planting of a titanium Russian flag under the North Pole, as that nation used outcroppings of undersea lands to justify their claim of Arctic wealth. I’ve noted how Russia is building new generations of nuclear-powered ice breakers (unique to Russia) to secure their longer-term ambitions to extract mineral wealth and oil reserves thought to lie under the coldest areas north of the Arctic Circle. The Northwest Passage may soon become passable for most of the year, linking Europe and Asia through this legendary waterway that, up until global warming began to open the waterway at least part of the year, was always frozen solid.

Canadians, Scandinavians and Americans have looked upon Russia’s less-than-subtle ambitions in the Arctic with great trepidation. If the United States were ever to break apart from the extreme polarization that affects us today, there are those in Russia who believe that the sale of Alaska (Seward’s Folly) to the United States for $7 million shortly after the Civil War was an illegal transaction by the Russian monarchy that was overthrown by the Russian revolution early in the twentieth century. They believe that land should return to the Russian motherland.

Recently, Canada began to focus on extensions of its own territorial rights into the Arctic, partly because of global warming (which opens access to those massive resources) and partly in response to Russian ambitions in the region. “Canada plans to make a claim to the north pole in an effort to assert its sovereignty in the resource-rich Arctic, the country's foreign affairs minister has said… [Canadian Foreign Minister] John Baird said the government had asked scientists to work on a future submission to the United Nations arguing that the outer limits of the country's continental shelf include the pole, which so far has been claimed by no one.

“Canada [in the first week of December] applied to [the U.N. to] extend its seabed claims in the Atlantic Ocean, including some preliminary Arctic claims, but wants more time to prepare a claim that would include the pole… Asserting Canada's rights in the Arctic has been a popular domestic issue for the prime minister, Stephen Harper, though at least one expert on the issue has described the planned claim as a long shot.” The Guardian (UK), December 10^th.

Punch, counter-punch. Russia, your move: “Russian President Vladimir Putin has told his military leadership they should build up their forces in the Arctic as a priority… Commending the recent restoration of an airfield in the region, he said Russia needed to use every means to protect its national interests in the region.

“He was speaking after Canada announced plans to claim the continental shelf under the North Pole… Russia and Denmark also lay claim to parts of the resource-rich shelf… Mr. Putin has spoken about the need to increase Russia's military capacity in the Arctic before but this was one of his most direct orders yet…

“It is a sign of the growing manoeuvring by the Arctic nations for the potentially valuable resources beneath the northern seas, [a BBC] correspondent says… The Arctic is estimated to have 30% of the world's undiscovered gas and 15% of the undiscovered oil. Climate change and advances in drilling technology mean these reserves are becoming easier and cheaper to exploit.” BBC.co.uk, December 11^th.

Russia doesn’t seem to be willing to ask the international body to make a ruling, and there are signs that if there were a ruling that negatively impacted Russia, they would ignore the mandate, reinforcing their decision with military might instead. Russian air and naval power will probably be moved and deployed to support claims to this desolate region. It could be a perfect storm just waiting to happen… an inadvertent escalation in tensions that easily transitions into a shooting war… or more. Punch, counter-punch. United States, what’s your move?

I’m Peter Dekom, and you thought all the explosive issues were far away from American shores?