Talibandages

As the United States left Iraq, squarely in the hands of a 60% majority Shiite government, the Iranians (over 90% Shiite) cheered, and the dethroned Sunnis started blasting and shooting away at Shiite targets, venting their rage and frustration. If where Iraqi sensibilities lie after the war might suggest, with folks like the brutal Assad regime in Syria and as a rather clear political satellite to the Ayatollah-led Iranian theocracy, the United States and its allies clearly lost this one. But at least the new Shiite-led Iraq and theocratic Iran are powerfully anti-Taliban (Sunni mega-extremists, to put it mildly, who hate Shiites).

And so, as we negotiate with Hamid Karzai, a lame duck in in final months, undoubtedly making sure all his piles of cash and other “benefits” are carefully squirreled away safe from prying eyes, we are going to find ourselves – whether Afghanistan accepts some U.S. presence after the main withdrawal or not – on the political losing end of this conflict as well. The Taliban may have occasionally slipped into “remission,” but the Afghan body is still deeply Taliban-infected, with the resulting rash well-planted into Pakistan as well.

It’s not as if the Taliban have a lot of friends in the countryside. They are brutal, intolerant and their call to primitive austerity is a life of minimalism and denial. They shoot little girls in the head. Still, a Taliban-controlled land may not have much in the way of a future for the people, especially females who are denied just about anything, but it does create enough stability and peace to allow farmers to tend their field and flocks without fear of shelling, mines or gunfire. It is level of existence that is better than a life of “duck and cover.”

The Taliban have every intention to maximize their power in this region and have little to deter them once the Western troops leave, and sooner or later these forces will go. Time is only on their side, and for every Taliban leader we kill, there are many to take his place. While I could drone on about our misspent war efforts in this unforgiving land with infinite patience that the infidels will eventually leave, things are already conspiring on the ground. Local warlords are loath to trust the incumbent Kabul regime to protect them when the NATO troops depart. Most have other plans, and some of them, even while still in the “elected” government, are already in implementation mode.

In the most intransigent Taliban strongholds, power-sharing seems to be a rising tide, even though no one really trusts that the Taliban will stand to share much of anything for long. Take the Sangin District, north of Kandahar in the southern border area in ultra-violent Helmand Province. The local Afghan military commander, possibly on his own (or was this a trial balloon?), worked out a cease-fire and power-sharing arrangement with the local Taliban. Sound the alarm! The United States is expendable! Did we waste too many lives and too much money only to become The Biggest Loser?

“The alarm was in part because of what Sangin has come to symbolize. It is one of just a few areas of Afghanistan where the Taliban have never been dislodged, and it was one of the deadliest battlegrounds in the country for American Marines and British troops who waged several offensives there over the years. It was handed over to Afghan security control early this year, and any appearance that the Afghans would be willing to essentially give back hard-won gains to the Taliban would be politically problematic, at best.

“According to several people familiar with the details, including the deputy district governor and the local police commander for Sangin, the deal involved a company commander’s ceding at least two checkpoints to the Taliban. It was unclear whether more senior officers in the area condoned the move… As part of the arrangement, which local officials said excluded the police force and other militias, the commander even drove the insurgents into the district bazaar to introduce them to the people, according to officials and witnesses.

“The Afghan Army has vehemently denied the existence of any deal with the insurgents, as have the Taliban themselves. Coalition officials referred all questions about the alleged incident to the Afghans… At least one official said that the top army commanders in the region reported knowing nothing about the plan and vowed to keep fighting.” New York Times, December 18th.

So assume the central government controls little more than Kabul and its environs with sporadic and shifting control of towns and villages far away depending on the strength and density of available military forces, already stretched pretty thin as NATO troops depart. Assume you want a shot at not getting shot, perhaps even keeping the nasty stash you have hidden away somewhere, what would you do? Trust the Kabul government to take care of you… or make some rather obvious new allies?

How many Americans really believe that after our departure, this will become a land of functioning democracy, economic stability and prosperity, free from the vicious government of totalitarian Taliban or the evil corruption of politicians who govern solely for their own coffers? Anybody? Anyone? Didn’t think so. So why exactly did so many have to die, why did we have to lift our deficit into the stratosphere and what did we think we were going to accomplish? If W was the miscreant who got us there, Obama was the miscreant who kept us there way, way too long.

I’m Peter Dekom, and I wonder how much of this history lesson will stick with us down the line.