No Fault Construction

I live in Los Angeles. I is a vibrant metropolis that actually has the kinds of ethnic neighborhoods that once defined what an increasingly-gentrified New York City is today. Local ethnic restaurants provide some of the most reasonable meals in the country. Housing is not that pricey compared to other major cities although transportation across this physically huge city can still be problematical. But there is one thing, we prefer not to talk about. The Big One. We all know it’s coming, and we all hope it is a lot later.

Building codes are being upgraded all the time, but most of the biggest technological developments have come in the last 25 years. Without even looking at the hundreds of thousands of single-family detached residences in this mega-metropolis, there are way too many big concrete buildings that should scare those who use or occupy them. “[T]wo reports, one by the University of California and a second by The Los Angeles Times, found that up to 1,500 concrete buildings built before 1975 are structurally vulnerable to collapse under the powerful force of a big earthquake.” New York Times, November 30^th. To make matters worse, we are constantly discovering new fault lines, all too frequently right under massive new construction… even under nuclear power stations like San Onofre down the coast a bit.

But for folks living here, building new structures is simply a way of life. Discovering the pain often stops construction dead in its tracks. For example, “[t]he proposed Millennium towers [artist’s rendering above], two skyscrapers that would soar against the Hollywood Hills, were supposed to be a powerful symbol of the campaign to transform Hollywood into a bustling urban hub… [However, t]he Millennium towers project was suspended this fall, before ground was broken, pending the outcome of a lawsuit filed by opponents citing warnings that the property might straddle a fault…

“This confluence of events means Los Angeles is caught in the kind of emotional debate that typically takes place only in the immediate aftermath of a powerful temblor. The issues involved are the widely acknowledged deficiencies in earthquake preparation here and the obligations of government and landlords to protect old and new buildings. The last major earthquake rumbled through here in 1994.” NY Times. Oh we’ve gone through a few nasties. The 1994 Northridge Quake hit 6.7 on the Richter Scale, killing over 60 people and injuring an estimated 8,700 more with massive property damage everywhere. But the big one is, well, going to be the BIG ONE.

Here’s how the state itself (Department of Conservation on its website) describes the possible impact of a mere (whew!) 7.8 temblor in the LA area (an 8 would cause a multiple of these results and is definitely possible):

·         The strongest shaking and greatest damage is near the stretch of the San Andreas Fault that extends through the fastest growing areas of Southern California, including the Coachella Valley, Inland Empire and Antelope Valley.

·         At least 10 million people will be in the heavily shaken areas. California's efforts at mitigation have concentrated on life safety and have been successful. Thus, in spite of the large numbers of people in highly shaken areas, deaths are estimated at only 1,800.

·         Building types known to be vulnerable to damage and collapse, do indeed sustain major damage. All un-reinforced masonry buildings within 15 miles of the San Andreas Fault are completely destroyed. Those that are not retrofitted kill many occupants. Many other older building types without retrofitting contribute to over $33 billion in damage to buildings.

·         The fault offsets all lifelines crossing into Southern California at Cajon Pass (Interstate 15), San Gorgonio Pass (Interstate 10) and along Route 14, including pipelines, power lines, roads, railways, telecommunications and aqueducts.

·         Strong shaking continues in downtown Los Angeles for 55 seconds – nearly 8 times longer than in the Northridge Earthquake

·         The prolonged, strong shaking heavily damages and sometimes collapses hundreds of old brick buildings, hundreds of older commercial and industrial concrete buildings, many wood-frame buildings, and even a few, high-rise steel buildings. The building damage causes tens of thousands of injuries and hundreds of deaths, and leaves many thousands of people without homes or jobs.

·         Fire doubles the fatalities and economic losses. Around Southern California, there will be 1,600 fires started large enough to warrant a 911 call, and some fires merge into conflagrations that burn hundreds of city blocks. Assuming no Santa Ana winds, the models still indicate a further $65 billion in direct losses from the fires.

·         Nearly two thirds of the hospital buildings are non-functional in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties.  At the same time, 50,000 people will seek treatment at emergency rooms.

·         Thanks to a $6 billion investment in seismic safety, the state highway system fares well. However, although collapse is avoided, some bridges are non-functional so that much of the highway is not passable on the day of the event. The long duration of shaking takes a greater toll on bridges and overpasses under the jurisdiction of cities and counties, where the retrofitting process is not completed or not yet begun. 

·         The largest long-term economic disruption comes from damage to our water distribution system. The damage to this system will be so extensive that some areas will just have to replace the whole system and some buildings will be without water for as much as 6 months. The business interruption costs from the lack of water will be $50 Billion.

We love our city, sneer at right coasters when winter rages through the Midwest and the Eastern Seaboard, but we all know… and we are all scared. Given the proclivity of too many in Congress who want to withhold emergency aid to blue states, we might even have a bigger reason to worry. It’s coming… we just don’t know when.

I’m Peter Dekom, and this is just one place where asking “what’s shakin’?” can get you a dirty look!