The Potential of Boom Times, in a Very Bad Way

 

Kashmir: from peaceful vacation                          

rental houseboats on Kashmir’s Lake Dal

On-again, off-again conflicts between Indian and Pakistani forces

 

The Potential of Boom Times, in a Very Bad Way

I was going down the list of Donald Trump’s summary of his triumphs over his second “first 100 days” – every claim was either totally false or flagrantly misrepresented – when I realized how this planet’s obsession with Trump’s failing bully presidency and his rapidly contracting US economy was a distraction from what could be a much bigger story with a much bigger global impact. Looming nuclear war. Not the proverbial “we’re gonna nuke the West, because they’re so bad” from Vladimir Putin and his henchmen… even as he has moved Russian troops and reinforced his military installations along the Finnish border.

No, this threat has been mirrored in a history of terrorism, war and escalating build-ups of nuclear weapons, seemingly endless conflict born of the 1947/8 bloody partition of mostly Hindu India from almost entirely Muslim Pakistan. As time passed, the tinderbox was heavily focused on the disputed territory of majority Muslim Kashmir, most of which was controlled (by force) by India while claimed by Pakistan. A little history is in order, starting with the most recent “incident” on April 22nd. Islamist “militants massacred 26 tourists in the mountainous town of Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir, a rampage that has sparked widespread outrage… India has accused Pakistan of being involved in the attack — a claim Islamabad denies. Pakistan has offered a neutral investigation into the incident.” CNN, April 29th. Surviving tourists reported that Hindu men were singled out as the targets.

“India and Pakistan have engaged in four wars since 1947, primarily over the Kashmir region. The 1947-48 conflict ended in a stalemate. The 1965 war remains disputed. The 1971 war, sparked by the Bangladesh independence movement, resulted in a major Indian victory. The 1999 Kargil War saw India reclaim territories. Additionally, conflicts like the Siachen conflict (1984–2003) and the 2001–2002 India–Pakistan standoffs have added to the regional tensions.” studyiq.com, also the creator of the above chart.

“The India–Pakistan border is one of the most militarized international boundaries in the world. There have been numerous attempts to improve the relationship, notably with the 1972 Shimla summit, 1999 Lahore summit, and the 2001 Agra summit in addition to various peace and co-operation initiatives. Despite those efforts, relations between the countries have remained frigid as a result of repeated acts of cross-border terrorism sponsored by the Pakistani side and alleged subversive acts sponsored by India. The lack of any political advantages on either side for pursuing better relations has resulted in a period of ‘minimalist engagement’ by both countries. This allows them to keep a ‘cold peace’ with each other.” Wikipedia. A cold peace that has erupted into hot bullets more than once, as the above chart suggests.

There has been a near constant Muslim insurgency in Kashmir and adjacent Jammu provinces against “Indian occupation.” But some of the most violent Islamist attacks have taken place far from Kashmir. For example, the “2008 Mumbai attacks by ten Pakistani terrorists killed over 173 and wounded 308. The sole surviving gunman Ajmal Kasab who was arrested during the attacks was found to be a Pakistani national. This fact was acknowledged by Pakistani authorities. In May 2010, an Indian court convicted him on four counts of murder, waging war against India, conspiracy and terrorism offences, and sentenced him to death… India blamed the Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistan-based militant group, for planning and executing the attacks. Indian officials demanded Pakistan extradite suspects for trial. They also said that, given the sophistication of the attacks, the perpetrators ‘must have had the support of some official agencies in Pakistan’. In July 2009 Pakistani authorities confirmed that LeT plotted and financed the attacks from LeT camps in Karachi and Thatta. In November 2009, Pakistani authorities charged seven men they had arrested earlier, of planning and executing the assault.” Wikipedia.

But there’s a huge catch, as tempers again flared on both sides: nuclear saber-rattling leaked into the madness. “Starting preparations for a nuclear test in 1972, India finally exploded its first nuclear bomb in Pokhran test range, codename Smiling Buddha, in 1974. During the 1980s–90s, India began development of space and nuclear rockets, which marked Pakistan's efforts to engage in the space race with India. Pakistan's own program developed space and nuclear missiles and began uncrewed flight tests of its space vehicles in the mid-1990s, which continues in the present.” Wikipedia. Both nations claim to be full-on democracies, but over the years “strongmen” emerged with rabid followings. Both nations are nuclear weapons antagonists.

Following the April 22nd incident, each nation sent troops to the disputed border, advised its nationals to return to the home country, pulled visas from those from the “enemy state,” as India abrogated a water rights treaty with Pakistan. Forces from each side have exchanged bullets and more. Pakistan prepared for a major Indian offensive against its territory, as the world, from the United Nations to the United States, attempted to calm tensions. But experts wonder if this latest violence in Kashmir might have been the straw that broke the camel’s back… and whether this was the moment where nuclear strikes could create the first major nuclear attack since the US bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. And if that were to occur, what would that mean for the general restraint against the use of nuclear weapons in other conflict-prone regions? Time will tell… but I suspect that nuclear war might be a bit more terrifying than our moronic efforts to impose major tariffs on most of the world. Threats of an imminent attack by Indian forces didn’t materialize… yet. Will cooler heads prevail?

I’m Peter Dekom, and I thought I would be remiss in not writing about one of the greatest threats on our planet.