What Price Mineral Supplements?

What Price Mineral Supplements?

It seemed to begin and end in late February after what looked like a White House ambush of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as Trump and Trump, Jr, JD Vance, excoriated Zelenskyy, calling him an ingrate on the verge of starting WWIII. Watching Trump tell the Ukrainian President that he had “no cards to play,” and that he should trust the world’s most notorious promise-breaker, Vladimir Putin, was painful. Aside from the fact that this was supposed to be a signing ceremony for a horrific rape of Ukraine’s mineral and fossil fuel resources, this incident played badly in the global press… and got Zelenskyy tossed out of the White House. What it did accomplish was to create a “minerals deal do-over” that had the potential of helping Ukraine recover from the unprovoked Russian invasion.

Ostensibly favoring Russia’s narrative, Trump himself grew weary of the game playing recalcitrance of Vladimir Putin’s delaying and “moving target” tactics in the purported “peace talks” to settle the Russian/Ukraine war. Putin clearly did not want peace, and if he could prolong the war and Ukraine were deprived of US military support, Putin believed he could actually defeat and conquer Ukraine… or at least legitimize Russia’s conquest of the territories marked in pink in the above BBC map, occupied by Russian forces.

But also, as that map illustrates, the largest deposit of those rare earths that are necessary for the manufacture of sophisticated electronic components (from F-35 fighter jets to smart phones) slices into some of Russia’s occupied Ukraine (the green areas). While the new agreement allows the US to opt out at any time – that’s not a big deal given how many times Trump has abrogated treaties – it contains some interesting changes from what was originally proposed.

First, it seems to have been negotiated by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a seeming pragmatist on the Trump cabinet. Second, it deleted any mention that the US share of mineral/fossil fuel revenues would represent repayment of our massive military aid to Ukraine (estimated by the US as $350bn), a provision that clearly alienated European allies who may have actually contributed the same if not more aid to Ukraine. And third, for the first time, there is recognition that post-war Ukraine will need massive investment to restore infrastructure, local businesses and housing. The profits from this mineral deal will be plowed back into that rebuilding effort.

The document veers squarely away from the myth, momentarily embraced by Trump, that it was Ukraine that fomented this conflict. Paul Kirby, James FitzGerald and Tom Geoghegan, writing for the May 1st BBC News, add: “The agreement refers to ‘Russia's full-scale invasion’ and the US Treasury Department adds that ‘no state or person who financed or supplied the Russian war machine will be allowed to benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine’…

“Ukraine has long aspired to join the European Union and accession talks formally began last June… There were some concerns in Kyiv that the resources deal could hinder Ukraine's ability to join the EU, if it gave preferential treatment to US investors, as Kyiv and Brussels already have a strategic partnership on raw materials… But the deal's text says that the US acknowledges Ukraine's intention to join the EU and the need for this agreement not to conflict with that.

“It also says that if Ukraine needs to revisit the terms of the deal because of ‘additional obligations’ as part of joining the EU, then the US agrees to negotiate in good faith… Additionally, Kyiv says the US will support additional transfers of investment and technology in Ukraine, including from the EU and elsewhere…

“A US military commitment back on table... The US has framed the deal as an essential one to sign if Ukraine is to continue to receive its military assistance… Ukrainian First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko - who flew to Washington DC to sign the deal - said it envisaged the US contributing new assistance in the future, such as air defence systems.” Will this announcement, these terms, deter Putin’s belief that Russian victory is just around the corner? It sure as hell beats the first blush policies Trump was trying to shove down Kyiv’s throat… and if properly administered, could serve as a win-win for both parties.

I’m Peter Dekom, and in an ocean of foreign policy missteps, this deal from the Trump administration is one that is beginning to make sense.