Dust in the Wind

I was wrong. In my many pieces about the Ogallala Aquifer (also known as the High Plains Aquifer), I suggested that it would be 80% dry by 2020. That’s a pretty terrible outcome for an underground water system that once was the size of Lake Huron (10,000 square miles), especially since this massive aquifer stretches from the Dakotas to North Texas and supplies much of the irrigation water for the mid-West grain belt. Oh the prediction is still accurate, but the implication that the entire region that depends on that aquifer for irrigation would still have 20% of that water supply in 2020 is, unfortunately, inaccurate.

You see, the aquifer doesn’t actually distribute that water evenly across its entire length and breadth. If you live in the northern section of over the aquifer, you probably will have enough water for centuries to come. But if you are farming along the southern part of the Ogallala, there’s a good chance you have already run dry… or a just about dry. Farmers down there are facing a devastating future, beginning with a very nasty present. Add the effects of global warming on regional summer temperatures and rainfall.  It’s the Big Drought, one that may not end in many, many lifetimes to come.

“Vast stretches of Texas farmland lying over the aquifer no longer support irrigation. In west-central Kansas, up to a fifth of the irrigated farmland along a 100-mile swath of the aquifer has already gone dry. In many other places, there no longer is enough water to supply farmers’ peak needs during Kansas’ scorching summers…. And when the groundwater runs out, it is gone for good. Refilling the aquifer would require hundreds, if not thousands, of years of rains.

“This is in many ways a slow-motion crisis — decades in the making, imminent for some, years or decades away for others, hitting one farm but leaving an adjacent one untouched. But across the rolling plains and tarmac-flat farmland near the Kansas-Colorado border, the effects of depletion are evident everywhere. Highway bridges span arid stream beds. Most of the creeks and rivers that once veined the land have dried up as 60 years of pumping have pulled groundwater levels down by scores and even hundreds of feet.” New York Times, May 19^th.

When wind-powered pumps were standard, the aquifer easily replenished from rainfall. Diesel pumps changed that balance long ago, and the many decades of constant pumping have taken their toll. Giant pivot irrigators, spraying massive amounts of water in a circular pattern, increased over the years. There were 250,000 acres of irrigated farmland in Kansas in 1950, but that number slowly increased to 3 million acres. When our government (in Bush administration) created a fuel-based ethanol policy that effectively subsidized water-hungry corn (which sucks up 14 inches of water a year), the problem got much worse much faster. And it’s not just grain crops that are slammed. A dairy cow needs 12 gallons of water a day, so dairy farming is also shutting down everywhere in this region.

“Two years of extreme drought, during which farmers relied almost completely on groundwater, have brought the seriousness of the problem home. In 2011 and 2012, the Kansas Geological Survey reports, the average water level in the state’s portion of the aquifer dropped 4.25 feet — nearly a third of the total decline since 1996.

“And that is merely the average. ‘I know my staff went out and re-measured a couple of wells because they couldn’t believe it,’ said Lane Letourneau, a manager at the [Kansas] State Agriculture Department’s water resources division. ‘There was a 30-foot decline.’” NY Times.

As natural disasters strike suddenly, it’s easier to react. A hurricane. Tornado. Fires. Earthquakes. But slow change with tipping points seems to elude our ability to plan, protect and adapt. We have not been a proactive nation, instead deferring maintenance, ignoring slow-build issues, until the ability to fix the problem eludes us or a big disaster requires hugely expensive emergency aid. Large parts of the mid-West will turn into desert and dust. It may be a problem we cannot solve. What other parts of this great land will suffer clearly-approaching environmental disaster… that we are doing nothing about?

I’m Peter Dekom, and I wonder if the United States will start becoming a net foodstuff importer, creating another strain on our trade balance?