Reading the Tea Leaves

By the time the infamous Zhou Dukes ruled the rich and fertile lands in central China (855 to 221 BC), the Chinese psyche had been set. Confucius was the great administrator, moving from one Duke’s court to another, but his essays (literally words – “sayings” – to live by) about Chinese propriety, virtues and moral values – known as the Analects (circa 5^th century BC) codified the expectations of a brutal and strictly hierarchical society that has endured in one form or another over time into the present day.

The Zhou Dukes grew to abhor eye contact from the commoners, a practice that evolved into the bow and even the kowtow heavily practiced in the entire region. They believed that they literally owned everything of value in their dukedoms, planting spies everywhere to discover hidden wealth. If you weren’t in the inner circle, your ability to possess wealth (usually not kept where you lived for obvious reasons) was either a matter of secrecy or tacit approval from the top. Chinese homesteads reflected the architecture of secrecy: a walled compound with no external windows, all turned inward toward the encircled courtyard.

With spies everywhere, you learned to distrust anyone outside of your family (or those non-familial relationships earning a trusted “uncle” or “auntie” affirmation) and never, never to talk about inner feelings or make direct statements that could be challenged later. Anything you said could and would be used against you by the harsh social system. Chinese dialogue evolved into a language of visual metaphor, where you could use the symbolism to make a point or lapse back into the visual metaphor itself to create “plausible deniability.” “I wasn’t talking about a different system of politics; I was talking about flowers!”

It is precisely this persistence of speaking indirectly, in a language of “plausible deniability,” that often drives China-watchers bonkers. This indirect expressive structure endures into the present day, so one has to read tea leaves to figure out through “hints” what is really happening. There are no “accidental” frank statements. Everything is carefully considered and filtered, with government officials often floating trial balloons in obscure publications or indirect actions or inactions.

And so it is with China’s new top boss, Xi Jinping, who has spoken about walking carefully across the “stepping stones” across the creek. His prioritization of rooting out corruption is of particular interest to the outside world, where we have watched China’s insiders and “princelings” take their piece out of most large-scale financial transactions in the Peoples Republic. There is some tea brewing, perhaps a signal, perhaps a trial balloon, in accusations of corruption against a top official fomented by an aggressive journalist. “Liu Tienan [pictured above], deputy head of the National Development and Reform Commission [a senior economic planning group], is suspected of ‘serious disciplinary violations,’ Xinhua news agency says.

“Allegations against Mr Liu first surfaced in December, when a well-known journalist [Luo Changping, deputy editor of respected Caijing Magazine] accused him of corruption… On entries posted on weibo, China’s version of Twitter, Mr Luo said the official was involved in questionable financial deals, fabricated his academic record and threatened to kill a former mistress.” BBC.co.uk, May 13, 2013.

BBC’s Martin Patience tells us just how significant this little story might be: “What is unusual about this case is how it first came to light. A journalist from the respected Chinese magazine, Caijing, posted the allegations online last December… Normally, allegations against senior officials are censored immediately. When, for example, the foreign media ran reports about wealth accumulated by the families of President Xi Jinping and former Premier Wen Jiabao, they were blocked online.

“But the allegations about Liu Tienan remained online for months, which almost certainly suggests the decision not to remove them was sanctioned by the country’s leadership… Mr Liu is by no means a giant of Chinese politics, but he is senior enough for people to sit up and take note. Since taking power, Xi Jinping has frequently warned about the dangers corruption poses to Communist Party rule.” BBC.co.uk. Is this a tiny step, a test of the system, as Xi begins to make his move? Is this a warning to others, a beginning of a “long march” against corruption or both? Xi Jinping just might be getting serious about one of China’s biggest problems.

I’m Peter Dekom, and these could be some very interesting tea leaves to read.