Wheely ?

Total and Per-Capita Vehicle-Miles Traveled, U.S

 

.

 *2012 data from U.S. Department of Transportation’s (U.S. DOT)

Traffic Volume Trends series of reports; data from previous

years from U.S. DOT’s Highway Statistics series of reports.

For six consecutive decades, year-by-year, Americans have been driving more per capita than the preceding year. As you can see from the above chart, that trend has just ended. Some say we have reached such a level of urban versus rural growth, a movement of people away from suburbs back to the city center, that these numbers are nothing more than a reflection of that statistic. The high cost of gasoline, the recession and earning contractions that have plagued us consistently since 2002, and our generally lowered expectations seem to be significant contributing factors.

But particular group, younger, employment-age workers, has been hit harder than most of the rest. “While the unemployment rate fell to 7.5 percent in April, a five-year low, unemployment among 18-29 year olds remained at 11.1 percent. Adjusting for labor participation and those who have given up looking for work, the effective rate is 16.1 percent…‘It is a rough time to be a young person in America,’ Evan Feinberg, president of Generation Opportunity, a youth-based grassroots group, said in a statement.” DailyCaller.com, May 3^rd.

A May 14^th report from U.S. PRIG (the federation of state public interest research groups) drills down on exactly how these statistics reflect younger American drivers:

·         The Millennials (people born between 1983 and 2000) are now the largest generation in the United States. By 2030, Millennials will be far and away the largest group in the peak driving age 35-to-54 year old demographic, and will continue as such through 2040.
 

·         Young people aged 16 to 34 drove 23 percent fewer miles on average in 2009 than they did in 2001—a greater decline in driving than any other age group. The severe economic recession was likely responsible for some of the decline, but not all.

·         Millennials are more likely to want to live in urban and walkable neigh­borhoods and are more open to non-driving forms of transportation than older Americans. They are also the first generation to fully embrace mobile Internet-connected technolo­gies, which are rapidly spawning new transportation options and shifting the way young Americans relate to one another, creating new avenues for living connected, vibrant lives that are less reliant on driving.
 

·         If the Millennial-led decline in per-capita driving continues for another dozen years, even at half the annual rate of the 2001-2009 period total vehicle travel in the United States could remain well below its 2007 peak through at least 2040—despite a 21 percent increase in population. If Millennials retain their current pro­pensity to drive less as they age and future generations follow (Enduring Shift), driving could increase by only 7 percent by 2040. If, unexpectedly, Millennials were to revert to the driv­ing patterns of previous generations (Back to the Future), total driving could grow by as much as 24 percent by 2040.

The statistics are filled with questions. How does this impact our budget allocations to streets, highways and transportation in general? How will these trends affect the future design of cars, the economics of car manufacturing and the future viability of the automotive industry? How will cities be redesigned and reprioritized to accommodate lowered expectations and more mass transit? For European, these questions were answered a long time ago. Most urban dwellers rely heavily on public transportation, using cars (when they even have them) for weekend travel and recreation. Gasoline prices are a multiple of those in the United States and parking, particularly in cities designed centuries ago, is seriously expensive. China is grappling with “car issues” ranging from congestion and parking to some of the worst pollution issues on earth.

Whatever else is said and done, the experience of “driving” itself is likely to change. Computer-controlled vehicular movement seems inevitable; you might not be allowed to control your own car in many circumstances. The overall downward buying power plaguing most Americans will definitely change the way we look at cars, garages and fuel systems. For those who think “Americans will never change their attitude about their cars,” it’s time to look at the numbers that contradict that assumption.

I’m Peter Dekom, and our entire lifestyle is simply an aggregation of all of these rapidly accelerating trending changes.