Biden loyalists point to the poll-projected Big Red Wave for the 2022 mid-terms. While the GOP did squeeze to take the House, a reality that kept Congress from passing legislation, the Senate remained with the Dems. That Big Red Wave became a minor pink ripple, although the resultant House MAGA/Freedom Caucus in-fighting resulted in a gridlocked Congress, held hostage by an ultra-rightwing minority in the House. This gridlock produced a mere 27 bills in 2023 from a Congress that normally does well over ten times that number. The House GOP seems hell-bent on finding impeachment evidence (none yet) that Hunter Biden’s connections to his father make Joe just as corrupt as people accuse Trump of being. The ploy has found some traction.
And while most voters really do not like the geriatric rematch between Trump and Biden, it sure looks as if that’s what we are going to get. Discussions in the media have pitted an “insurrectionist” facing criminal trials against a doddering octogenarian whose vocabulary seems mired in the 1950s. Issues have taken second place to character analysis. Democracy itself is at stake, yet one set of voters will not attribute anything negative to Donald Trump. The other is just plain confused or ambivalent. Enough to support the “insurrectionist,” a self-declared angel of “retribution” who plans on being a MAGA dictator? “Oh no, we won’t vote for Trump,” they say, “We might not vote at all or vote for a third-party candidate instead.” That could elect Donald.
Some third-party candidates, most notably conservative/moderate Democrat Joe Manchin if he chooses to run as a purported “neutral” No Labels candidate, would probably doom Biden’s chances. Others, well, NBC News writer, Alex Seitz-Wal (December 26th) looks at third-party candidates amid voter frustration: “While minor-party candidates are nothing new, the ballot may be extra long next year, with well-known independents like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, along with possible centrist candidacies from West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin and an effort backed by No Labels, on top of the familiar presence of the Green and Libertarian parties… ‘This is a pretty unique historical moment when more than 60% of the population says they’re open to voting for a third-party or independent candidate,’ said Tony Lyons, Kennedy’s book publisher and the co-founder of a super PAC that has already raised millions to support the ex-Democrat.
“Several recent polls show Kennedy’s support above 19%, the modern record for a non-major-party candidate set by billionaire Ross Perot during his 1992 independent campaign, despite mostly negative coverage in the mainstream media, Lyons said. And then there are the results of an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll in December, summarized by AP journalists, Will Weissert and Linley Sanders, on January 5th: “In this time of war overseas, more Americans think foreign policy should be a top focus for the U.S. government in 2024, with a new poll showing international concerns and immigration rising in importance with the public.
“About 4 in 10 U.S. adults named foreign policy topics in an open-ended question that asked people to share up to five issues for the government to work on in the next year, according to a December poll from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research… That’s about twice as many who mentioned the topic in the AP-NORC poll conducted in late 2022… Long-standing economic worries still overshadow other issues. But the new poll’s findings point to increased concern about U.S. involvement overseas — 20% voiced that sentiment in the poll, versus 5% a year ago.
“It also shows that the Israel-Hamas war is feeding public anxiety. It was mentioned by 5%, while almost no one cited the long-running Mideast conflict a year ago. The issue has dominated geopolitics since Israel declared war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip after the Palestinian militant group’s Oct. 7 attack on Israeli soil… Four percent of U.S. adults mentioned the war between Russia and Ukraine as something for their government to focus on this year. That’s similar to the 6% who mentioned it at the end of 2022.
“Foreign policy has gained importance among respondents from both parties. Some 46% of Republicans named it, up from 23% a year earlier. And 34% of Democrats list foreign policy as a focal point, compared with 16% a year ago.” But the view on Biden from the UK’s The Economist (January 5th), which despises Trump, is positively scathing: “The man supposed to stop Donald Trump is an unpopular 81-year-old… In failing to look past Joe Biden, Democrats have shown cowardice and complacency.
“American politics is paralysed by a contradiction as big as the Grand Canyon. Democrats rage about how re-electing Donald Trump would doom their country’s democracy. And yet, in deciding who to put up against him in November’s election, the party looks as if it will meekly submit to the candidacy of an 81-year-old with the worst approval rating of any modern president at this stage in his term. How did it come to this?
“Joe Biden’s net approval rating stands at minus 16 points. Mr Trump, leading polls in the swing states where the election will be decided, is a coin-toss away from a second presidential win. Even if you do not see Mr Trump as a potential dictator, that is an alarming prospect… There are no secrets about what makes Mr Biden so unpopular. Part of it is the sustained burst of inflation that has been laid at his door. Then there is his age. Most Americans know someone in their 80s who is starting to show their years. They also know that no matter how fine that person’s character, they should not be given a four-year stint in the world’s hardest job…
“Like many pusillanimous congressional Republicans, who disliked Mr Trump and considered him dangerous—but could not find it within themselves to impeach or even criticise him—Democratic stalwarts have been unwilling to act on their concerns about Mr Biden’s folly. If that was because of the threat to their own careers, their behaviour was cowardly. If it was thinking that Mr Trump is his own worst enemy, it was complacent. Mr Biden’s approval ratings have continued to slide, while the 91 criminal charges Mr Trump faces have, so far, only made him stronger.
“Given this, you might think that the best thing would be for Mr Biden to stand aside. After all, the election is still ten months away and the Democratic Party has talent. Alas, not only is that exceedingly unlikely, but the closer you look at what would happen, finding an alternative to Mr Biden at this stage would be a desperate and unwise throw of the dice... Were he to withdraw today, the Democratic Party would have to frantically recast its primary, because filing deadlines have already passed in many states and the only other candidates on the ballot are a little-known congressman called Dean Phillips and a self-help guru called Marianne Williamson. Assuming this was possible, and that the flurry of ensuing lawsuits was manageable, state legislatures would have to approve new dates for the primaries closer to the convention in August…
“The president is not a good campaigner and is up against a candidate whose rallies are a cult meeting crossed with a vaudeville show. He needs someone who can speak to crowds and go on television for him. That person is not Ms Harris… One way she could serve her party and her country, and help keep Mr Trump out of the White House, would be to forswear another term as vice-president. Mr Biden could present his second term as a different kind of presidency, one in which he would share more responsibility with a vice-president acting more like a CEO. Either way, Mr Biden needs the help of an army of enthusiastic Democrats willing to campaign alongside him. At the moment he and his party are sleepwalking towards disaster.” Wow!
There are no easy answers. Biden should have dropped out a while ago. But that unwritten rule that “you do not run against an incumbent president in your own party seeking reelection” has held viable candidates back. Or maybe, that Red Trump Wave will fizzle out as well. Time will tell.
I’m Peter Dekom, and while I have a pile of blogs in inventory, I am having shoulder surgery that will immobilize my right arm for many weeks… so excuse my failure to add to that inventory, but I will be back!
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