New Wars, New Technology & Obsolescence

 

Advantage: zealots with nothing left to lose with self-made weapons and supplies from other technologically advanced nations sending state-of-the-art missiles and rockets? Or… Major nations with vast militaries, super-sophisticated weapon systems on highly mobile platforms? Depends on the conflict, of course. But hi-tech countries are increasingly engaged in surrogate wars, where complexity joins deniability on the battlefield. For hit-and-run insurgents (particularly those willing to use innocent civilians as human shields), it may be a series of smaller wars that hammer away at an opponent. Or it may be a long, weary insurgency that tests the will of a major nation that is worn down over time.

Sophisticated us. The West vs the rising militant communist tide in Korea produced an armistice but most certainly did not contain an increasingly brutal and technologically advancing North Korea. Both France and the United States lost sustained wars in Vietnam/Indochina. The US pulled out of Iraq, purportedly leaving a local government in charge, but it is hardly a secret that mostly Shiite Iraq is today a de facto satellite of almost all Shiite Iran. Likewise, the United States fought its longest war in history, and after two US Presidents (Trump and Biden) signaled it was time for us to withdraw, the Medieval-minded Sunni fundamentalist Taliban returned to power. They had defeated the United States just way their predecessors, the fundamentalist Mujahedeen, defeated the Soviet Union decades before. Insurgents and small forces vs superpowers.

What’s happening here? We have major power brinkmanship – for example, a massive Chinese military challenging a massive American military (both with nukes and very sophisticated weapon systems and mobile platforms) – where sophistication and huge military expenditures are embedded in the conflicts. We have major power bullying – ranging from China’s attempt to control Taiwan as well as all of the sea lanes in its region and Russia’s invasion of autonomous Ukraine in breach of a litany of treaty obligations – and new ultra-violent regional conflicts that smack of combat surrogacy – like the Gaza war that has spread to drone attacks in the Red Sea against western shipping heading for the Suez Canal.

It makes sense to examine how technology has leveled the playing field between big armies and smaller insurgents. Much of this “leveling” has come via unmanned vehicles, mostly aerial but some seaborne, which we generically refer to as “drones.” But as the photographs of drones above illustrate, they can be huge aircraft with amazing observational and weapon systems capacities (able to stay airborne far longer than conventional jets), to small “suicide” aircraft (deadly but very cheap to build and operate), which are often homemade. Here’s what The Wall Street Journal sees as that drone advantage for smaller attackers:

“Over the past decade, uncrewed aerial vehicles—and recently naval vessels—have put increasingly lethal and effective military equipment in the hands of insurgent groups such as Islamic State, Yemen’s Houthi rebels and underdogs like the Ukrainian military. Kyiv used drones to slow Russia’s invasion in 2022 and later sent longer-range UAVs to hit targets as far away as Moscow… When Hamas struck Israel on Oct. 7, its attack began with strikes from hobbyist drones on Israeli surveillance posts. The Iran-backed Houthis are using drones to target Red Sea shipping lanes… The question for the U.S. and its allies now is how to defend against cheap drones without using expensive missiles…

“Like operating from a hilltop, drones extend fighters’ line of sight and field of fire. They improve the accuracy of weapons fired from afar, such as artillery. They can help locate and target logistical networks, stretching enemy supply lines and complicating operations. Long-range drones put civilian areas far from the frontline into play without the risk of sending pilots into danger…

“Unlike soldiers, drones don’t eat, sleep or get tired, and increasingly they’re expendable. Connected in a network, they can share information instantaneously with controllers and each other. Their unblinking eyes limit sanctuary on the battlefield, forcing troops to be constantly on guard, which is exhausting… Delegating some tasks to a drone – like mapping the terrain or identifying enemy positions – lightens the workload on human operators and frees them up to focus on higher-order tasks. Whether this autonomy reduces or increases the risk of errant strikes remains uncertain.

“Battlefield drones have gone from high-end systems to an expendable item like missiles. Commercial drones are adapted for combat use. Their proliferation is forcing bigger militaries to focus on advanced anti-drone technologies to maintain an edge. It’s also pushing them towards mass production of drone armies.” As artificial intelligence becomes ubiquitous, the ability of swarms of drones to network their attacks becomes even more terrifying. But everybody is using drones today… we just keeping insisting that ours be expensive and very sophisticated.

When drones and missiles rely on GPS or communication with their launching stations, those without strong, state-of-the-art electronic warfare (EW) capabilities face countermeasures that can nullify the effectiveness of their own technology. A raw example of that is the Ukraine conflict, where Russia fared badly when it was just a battle of artillery, missiles, tanks and drones… until recently, when aside from using networked swarming drones and missiles, by increasing their use of signal jamming trucks (the last picture above); Russia secured an advantage they never had before. Unless Ukraine can secure a major upgrade from NATO powers, the effectiveness of their vigorous defense may be significantly blunted. The November 23rd The Economist explains:

“Ukraine discovered in March that its Excalibur GPS-guided shells suddenly started going off-target, thanks to Russian jamming. Something similar started happening to the JDAM-ER [Joint Direct Attack Munition - Extended Range] guided bombs that America had supplied to the Ukrainian air force, while Ukraine’s HIMARS-launched GMLRS [High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems/Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems] long-range rockets also started missing their targets. In some areas, a majority of GMLRS rounds now go astray.

“Even more worrying has been the increasing ability of Russian ew to counter the multitudes of cheap unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVS) that Ukraine has been using for everything from battlefield reconnaissance and communications to exploding on impact against targets such as tanks or command nodes.

“Ukraine has trained an army of some 10,000 drone pilots who are now constantly engaged in a cat-and-mouse game with increasingly adept Russian EW operators. The favoured drones are cheap, costing not much more than $1,000 each, and Ukraine is building enormous quantities of them. But losses to Russian EW, which either scrambles their guidance systems or jams their radio-control links with their operators, have at times been running at over 2,000 a week. The smitten drones hover aimlessly until their batteries run out and they fall to the ground.

“Neither hardening them against jamming nor investing them with artificial intelligence to fly without a live link to a human operator are feasible options yet, at least for mini-drones. Quantity still wins out over quality, but Russia may have an advantage there too. The skies over the battlefield are now thick with Russian drones. Around Bakhmut, Ukrainian soldiers estimate that Russia is deploying twice the number of assault drones they are able to.” One way or another, military conflict is ugly, today giving small but ultra-violent terrorists weapons to level the playing field against much larger forces. But technology also accords militaries that need advanced technology a distinct disadvantage if they cannot keep up with a more EW sophisticated opponent.

I’m Peter Dekom, and as our gridlocked and “keep taxes for the rich low” Congress seems unable to look at the bigger picture of global conflict, we do seem to be enabling our enemies, great and small.