2024 enters & faces reality
Transitions. The unstoppable flow of change. Evolution meets revolution. How culture grows, how societies die, where rebirth sows hope, how power corrupts, ambition explodes, people perish, climate changes, technology gives and yet threatens, winners, losers and how too many get filthy rotten rich. And yes, world, you are a violent mess, a blend of irreconcilable differences, religious beliefs used to support cruelty, alternative facts, conspiracy theories, a threshold of unforeseeable technological threats… and benefits. But there will be massive upside to those who can take advantage of the chaos, well beyond the purveyors of military hardware. All starting with a global political trend that is dramatically disturbing.
For inspiration today, I turn to that trusty UK journal, The Economist, beginning with a November 13th piece by the Editor-in-Chief, Zanny Minton Beddoes, which notes: “More than half the people on the planet live in countries that will hold nationwide elections in 2024, the first time this milestone has been reached. Based on recent patterns of voter turnout, close to 2bn people in more than 70 countries will head to the polls. Ballots will be cast from Britain to Bangladesh, from India to Indonesia. Yet what sounds like it should be a triumphant year for democracy will be the opposite.
“Many elections will entrench illiberal rulers. Others will reward the corrupt and incompetent. By far the most important contest, America’s presidential election, will be so poisonous and polarising that it will cast a pall over global politics. Against a backdrop of conflict, from Ukraine to the Middle East, America’s future direction—and with it the world order American leadership has hitherto underwritten—will be on the line. It will be a nerve-racking and dangerous year.
“Some elections will be obvious shams. In Belarus or Rwanda, for instance, the only question is how close to 100% the incumbent’s vote-share will be. Having illegally changed the constitution to remove term limits in 2020, Vladimir Putin will doubtless win a third consecutive term (and fifth overall) as Russia’s president.
“Most ballots cast will be in Asia. Its biggest democracies—Bangladesh, India and Indonesia—will all go to the polls. Unfortunately, the danger is of growing illiberalism. Under Narendra Modi, India is enjoying remarkable economic and geopolitical success, even as the prime minister condones anti-Muslim chauvinism and a dismantling of institutional safeguards. Indonesia’s president, Joko Widodo, seems focused on entrenching a political dynasty. Bangladesh has already taken an authoritarian turn, with opposition leaders jailed and no dissent brooked.
“America’s poisonous and polarising election will cast a pall over global politics… Mr Trump may not become the nominee, and if he does, he may well lose. But the odds of a second Trump term are alarmingly high. The consequences could be catastrophic—for democracy and for the world.”
Yup, we have an election where the headlines read: Very old candidate with a son mired in scandal vs an almost as old potential serious felon promising dictatorship. Issues? What are “Issues”? We’re so consumed with our own desire to be the dis-United States of America that sympathy, for those suffering from ego-driven yet horrific wars, seems to have left the building. But if you are rich and want more, or if you are a consumer and fear being priced out of life, all this strife and climate change adds an opportunity or stern warning, depending on how much money you have or can make.
In a parallel piece for the same issue, Matthieu Favas, tempers our supply chain expectations for the new year. Headline, commodities are hot… and threatened. “For much of 2023 commodity markets were treading water. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, on top of supply-chain snarls from covid-19, had sent raw-material prices soaring in 2022. But a subdued economic outlook turned a busy market boring. Some excitement returned in late 2023, as oil prices perked up. But worries about demand kept indices on the floor.
“In 2024 supply problems, together with resurgent demand, could cause three markets to take off. The first is crude oil. Most analysts reckon that new supply will combine with slow economic growth to cause a gradual decline in price, from more than $90 in September 2023 to $80 a barrel or less during 2024. But that could prompt Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest producer, to announce deeper output reductions than the 1m barrel-per-day cut—equivalent to 1% of global demand—it adopted in July. Iran’s production may also be dented by sanctions or shipping problems. That could set the stage for a squeeze when economic growth returns.
“Some metal markets also look vulnerable. Those for cobalt and lithium, two green metals on everyone’s radar in 2022, look well supplied. Instead watch copper, prices for which fell during 2023 because of low Chinese growth. The hottest of all metal markets could be the ultra-niche one for uranium. The search for steady sources of low-carbon power and the war in Ukraine have made governments hungrier for atomic energy just as coups and conflicts have disrupted uranium production. Prices for the metal, already at their highest for a decade, could rise further as market deficits remain.
“The third area to watch is the market for grain. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine did not jolt the market for long: wheat prices, at $12 a bushel in March 2022, hit $5 in autumn 2023. But Ukraine, the world’s fifth-biggest exporter of the grain, now exports 35% less. Bumper crops from Russia have made up the difference, but bad weather and escalating tensions could jeopardise that. Stocks at large exporters have been falling for years. Buffers against shocks are slim.”
Water may be the most politically determinative “commodity” on Earth. Farmland without water is called “desert.” Farmer in such areas, or where conflicts kill farmers, migrate along with others in their world equally threatened. Forced emigration is one of the most salient issues across the planet. And China’s woes, causing Xi Jinping’s need to distract his people from his failing policies, could escalate tensions and even conflicts directly between superpowers.
I’m Peter Dekom, and unless voters begin to discard conspiracy theories, misinterpret religious mandates and restore empathy… in favor of educated and pragmatic leaders… 2024 just might eclipse 2023 in measures of pain and instability.
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