Lower Violent Crime Rates, Higher Claims of Rising Violent Crime

 

Just as GOP claims constantly hammer on their belief that US violent crime is completely out of control, the FBI statistics (see above charts) clearly state otherwise. But yes, hate crimes are exploding, and gun-related crimes are significantly higher in states with the lowest level of gun control. And yes, mass shootings were on the rise in 2022/23, but while firearm homicide has become the leading cause of death for children and teens, otherwise there has been an 8% to 10% decline in gun deaths over the past two years.

Donald Trump’s calling cards include amping up the fear of violent crime, repeating the threat to US jobs and to rising crime from immigrants, challenging the citizenship bona fides high level politicians of color or Latino ethnicity (Barack Obama, Nikki Haley, Ted Cruz, Kamala Harris, etc.), almost always his political opponents, and maintaining i. only I can fix it, and ii. if I am not elected, there will be “bedlam.” Trump’s claims have become “indisputable doctrine” among virtually all GOP candidates… even though they are not true. That violent gun crime is measurably higher in red states should tell you which party has the right take on guns.

Writing for the New York Times The Morning (January 11th), German Lopez summarizes the trend: “In the chaotic early months of the Covid pandemic, when the U.S. was also going through the aftermath of George Floyd’s murder, violent crime rose across the country. Murders in 2020 increased at the fastest rate since national statistics began in 1960. Other crimes, like shootings and car thefts, also increased.

“The surge in violence left some experts worried that the U.S. might be entering another era of high crime, similar to that of the 1960s through the ’90s.

“But the data over the past year has offered a much more optimistic picture. The number of murders in U.S. cities fell by more than 12 percent — which would be the biggest national decline on record. The spike that started in 2020 now looks more like a blip, and the murder rate is lower than it was during the 1970s, ’80s and ’90s. The recent data also suggests that the violent-crime rate in 2023 was near its lowest level in more than 50 years, as Jeff Asher, a crime analyst, wrote for his newsletter…

“Regardless, the reality is this: During Covid, murders increased. As life has returned to normal, they have decreased.

“The second explanation involves Floyd’s death. High-profile police killings typically strain relations between law enforcement and the public. This leads some officers to pull back from activities that can stop crime. More people become skeptical of working with the police to solve and prevent crimes. And as they lose trust in the police and the justice system, more Americans resort to their own means, including violence, to settle conflicts.

“A similar phenomenon played out in the mid-2010s. Widely publicized police killings of Black men in Ferguson, Mo.; Baltimore; Chicago; and elsewhere strained relations between the police and their communities, and murders increased.

“Back then, murders declined after a couple of years, as tensions eased and officials tried to repair police-community relations and improve policing. The same seems to have happened in the last couple of years.”

So, it seems that social injustice, lax gun control and politicians pressing a rightwing “us vs them” platform are significant fomenters of violent crime. Communication, inclusion and increasing economic opportunity work the reverse. Extremism, “I’m right and you’re wrong” intractability, overly simplistic explanation, over-promising impossible solutions, polarization, and inciting fear with threats and blame destabilize and increase (justify) volatile social realities, making our world more dangerous. You don’t have to wonder why the FBI traces a serious increase in pro-Trump clandestine hacking into social media from our greatest enemies.

I’m Peter Dekom, and as we fail to contain the above negativity and destabilize our own country, remember that China, Russia, North Korea and Iran are cheering us on and using their hacking skills to support online the election of Donald Trump.