"I’m Never Wrong Dictators" Can Really Snatch Defeat from the Jaws of Victory

 

“I’m Never Wrong Dictators” Can Really Snatch Defeat from the Jaws of Victory

The Parable of the Great Mall of China

“Xi is dampening the energy and optimism of the Chinese people… In a system so dominated by one leader, everyone feels powerless to effect positive change.” 

Susan Shirk, a former senior diplomat during the Clinton administration.

“I consider Xi Jinping the most dangerous enemy of open societies in the world.” 

George Soros, August 2021

Whether you look at Nicholas Maduro (and his predecessor, Hugo Chavez) in Venezuela, Kim Jong-in North Korea, Vladimir Putin in Russia, Bashar al-Assad in Syria, the Shiite autocracy in Iran and now Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel, these demons of the desperate double down have led their countries into a dramatic erosion of local stability and economic growth. China went from an impoverished nation decimated by a purist and brutal idealogue (his ideas, of course) – Mao Zedong (self-appointed “The Great Helmsman”) – to potentially the largest economy on earth, beginning with the leadership (in the early 1980s) of a crass pragmatist, Deng Xiaoping.

Deng noted that lacking a modern financial infrastructure with trained experts, he would initially rely on the People’s Liberation Army for leadership to transition China into a modern, competitive economy. “Some must get rich first,” he declared, but China settled into a new era of managed capitalism, appointment of new leaders by the Politburo and ten-year term limits for top leaders. China prospered. Within 30 years, almost a billion people were lifted out of poverty. Skyscrapers rose above her cities, cars were everywhere, manufacturing soared, ultra-modern mega-malls filled with upscale consumer goods were everywhere, money flowed like water and China created a sizeable class of new mega-wealthy billionaires. When queried about the inconsistency of a nation labeled as “communist” yet with an economy mirroring extreme capitalism, as the new millennium began, then-President Jiang Zemin replied, “Communism is what we say it is.”

China’s economy could not stop growing. Until. In 2012, the seeds of economic and political reversal were planted with the ascension of Xi Jinping as China’s new paramount leader. He quickly purged any opposition to his rather clear ambitions to be the next “Chairman Mao” of China. Dissidents were arrested. Corporate moguls were subdued, their property taken and many imprisoned. Xi did away with term limits and declared an intention to stay in power until he either died or chose to retire. Military budgets exploded, China began claiming regional rights that clearly impinged on neighboring nations, reinforced by construction of a military-capable base via a massive development (including adding additional land) in the Spratley Island chain. Taiwan was now a reprioritized target, Uighurs in western China were imprisoned (“reeducated”), their culture challenged, and Hong Kong “democracy” was crushed in clear violation of the 1984 handover treaty with the UK.

Xi’s “zero tolerance” policy during the pandemic, and even thereafter, shut down the China machine. Over-construction of residential real estate, companies now foundering with missing leadership and a serious banking debt problem trashed the PRC’s economic miracle. Millions of young workers, many college graduates, were either unemployed or seriously underemployed. Xi’s micromanaged economic dream was trembling with issues. That only ramped up Xi’s efforts to distract his people by reciting global threats and promising the taking of Taiwan (which the PRC always claimed), violently if needed, as part of the “one-China” policy that even the US accepted.

But with a trampled vision for a better economic future, and a strong history of Xi’s arresting dissidents, for too many, hope had left the building. Using social media plus a massive show of force, Xi disrupted elections the world over and imposed his view that the United States was rapidly unraveling (perhaps true), and that the new world order would be redefined by China and Russia. Even the US dollar was targeted to sidestep the massive sanctions imposed on the PRC.

But life for Chinese citizens was deteriorating fast. As Lingling Wei, writing for the December 28th The Wall Street Journal, puts it: “A song called ‘Tomorrow Will Be Better’ became a sensation in mainland China in the 1980s, when the nation was emerging from the poverty and turmoil of Mao Zedong’s rule… Its inspirational lyrics, which exhorted listeners to ‘look upward for the wings in the sky,’ came to represent a generation that was starting to believe in a brighter future.

“Now people in China are listening to the song again—but for a very different reason. Videos of the song are circulating on WeChat and other communications apps, often with taglines expressing sadness about the end of that era… ‘The 1980s are gone forever,’ wrote one listener. ‘So long, those years of burning passion,’ wrote another.

“For many Chinese, especially those who came of age during the past 40 years of reform and opening, China appeared to be on an irreversible path forward toward more growth, openness and opportunity… But now China’s leader, Xi Jinping, is restoring aspects of Mao’s rule, forcing people to confront a more uncertain future rooted in China’s past.

“Xi’s predecessors, beginning with Deng Xiaoping, embraced market forces, growth and limited freedoms. Xi, by contrast, is placing national security over the economy, tightening government control, and putting the Communist Party—and himself—at the center of Chinese society… A Dec. 16 article published by the party’s influential journal, Qiushi, elevated Xi to the same historical status as Mao, calling Xi ‘the People’s leader’—a title previously reserved for China’s Great Helmsman.

“Gone is the booming China that inspired many young people and entrepreneurs to take risks and bet on the future. Home prices are falling, youth unemployment is at a record high, private investment is shrinking, the financial system is drowning in debt and deflation is setting in…. In addition, China is increasingly walled off from the Western world, both diplomatically and economically.

“While Xi himself isn’t to blame for all those problems—some reflect the excesses of the China he inherited—his Mao-style centralization of power is exacerbating many of them… [but even an entirely modern era city, HK’s neighbor, Shenzhen (built to be a model of China’s future economic power) was suffering]… Today, Shenzhen has a new slogan: ‘Follow the party, start your business’ —with the party coming first.

“Communist Party direction doesn’t seem to be brightening the city’s future. More than a quarter of Shenzhen’s office space sits empty after Xi started a campaign in 2020 to rein in risk-taking at private firms. The regulatory crackdown wiped out more than $1 trillion in market value from publicly-listed tech firms and triggered layoffs and business retrenchment.” As Biden attempts to reestablish even a modicum of routinized communications, as even Congress is railing against China, there a now many “Great Walls” against even a mild détente. Xi’s idea of governance is all about him and his wish to remake China in his image. It certainly does not work for the people.

I’m Peter Dekom, and when a powerful political figure centers a nation’s future around himself, promising retribution and revenge against those who oppose him under his autocratic rule, we all need to go on “voter red alert.”