That Makes No Census

 

Continuing to today; note the slight decline beginning in 2005

Who are we? What are we becoming? What are the underlying demographics and how do they reinforce the political polarization that defines a nation teetering on becoming ungovernable?

According to the US Census Bureau, “The current fertility rate for U.S. in 2023 is 1.784 births per woman, a 0.11% increase from 2022.” Unfortunately, the replacement rate (to maintain the existing population) is 2.1 live births from women. While the numbers for the last few years show a pretty stable birth rate, anything less than that replacement rate shows a population contraction absent adding new population through immigration. A summary of the latest US Census Report (December 28th) is presented by the December 29th Associated Press: “The worldwide growth rate in the last year was just under 1%. At the start of 2024, 4.3 births and two deaths are expected worldwide every second, according to the Census Bureau figures.

“The growth rate for the United States in the last year was 0.53%, about half the worldwide figure. The U.S. added 1.7 million people and will have a population on New Year’s Day of 335.8 million people… If the current pace continues through the end of the decade, the 2020s could be the slowest-growing decade in U.S. history, yielding a growth rate of less than 4% over the 10-year-period from 2020 to 2030, said William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution…

“If the current pace continues through the end of the decade, the 2020s could be the slowest-growing decade in U.S. history, yielding a growth rate of less than 4% over the 10-year-period from 2020 to 2030, said William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution… The current slowest-growing decade was in the aftermath of the Great Depression in the 1930s, when the growth rate was 7.3%... ‘Of course growth may tick up a bit as we leave the pandemic years. But it would still be difficult to get to 7.3%,’ Frey said.” On top of that, American life expectancy continues to fall: “The commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration had an urgent message last winter for his colleagues, brandishing data that life expectancy in the United States had fallen again — the biggest two-year decline in a century.” Washington Post, December 18th. Immigration should be the solution. It isn’t.

In a November CNN Global Public Square telecast, journal Fareed Zacharia posited that his expert economists believe the United States has lost over $5 trillion in GDP annually by making immigration close to impossible (well beyond the controlling of our southern border) and pushing undocumented aliens under the radar. These undocumented workers are underpaid and do not file tax returns for fear of deportation. Strange that avoiding meaningful immigration reform – the last measure was passed in 1986 under the Reagan administration (opening a path to legal residence and ultimate citizenship to these workers) – is now a cornerstone of the once revenue focused Republican Party, now numbers-phobic.

Undocumented workers may be trying to enter primarily at the Mexican border, but: “The undocumented population from Mexico, the principal source of immigrants to the United States, dropped to 4.4 million from 6.6 million during that period.” NY Times, March 13th. They’re coming from points south and even from places outside the Americas. For a more detailed breakdown of our “immigration problem,” see my December 19th Borders Ain’t Just a Book Store No Mo’ blog. The undocumented account for less than 5% of our total workforce.

So, we have an aging population, couples having fewer children (as the cost-of-living increases) and a Social Security/Medicare system that was created to be self-funding under the assumption that there would be more workers supporting a stable bevy of retirees. That was then. The numbers today say otherwise, suggesting that we need to reconfigure how we fund basic social needs when the old revenue models have become obsolete. Since the source of that support has always been taxes and levies, the obvious solution lies in those two areas. The caps on contributions and our non-sensical reluctance to tax wealth (except on death or transfer) need to be revisited.

We are about to become a nation where the aggregation of such minorities is in itself a majority. This change in our demographics is one of the driving forces in the MAGA effort to exclude ethnic, religious and racial minorities from voting. And to stop immigration. Further, as women become more independent, there are more married men than married women… and women slightly edge out the male population overall. A September 7th Census report notes: “The odds of finding a potential mate in the United States were in men’s favor [since] 2019; there were 89.8 unmarried men for every 100 unmarried women, according to a new U.S. Census Bureau analysis… Although the overall sex ratio for unmarried adults in the United States was about 90 men per 100 women, the 30-to-34 age group had the highest ratio at nearly 121 men to 100 women.”

But the big demographic change is reflected in the above Census chart, representing population shifts among states. High cost of living states have lost people; New York has lost the most. Since the House of Representatives is based on population with elections every two years, and since the highest internal migration has been to red states, you might assume that the power is shifting to GOP-controlled states. But if that were the case, then you would think Republicans wouldn’t have to engage in voter restrictions; gerrymandering wouldn’t be necessary.

While that might be true in some states, there is a very real trend toward “red to purple” and “purple to blue.” Those moving from blue to red states to save money are not necessarily MAGA Republicans; many are taking their liberal attitudes and expectations of governance with them as they enter red states. For example, nearly every large city in Texas (excluding Fort Worth) is blue but gerrymandered red. If voting districts reflected true urban power, Texas would become a swing state. That transition has occurred in Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico and is working its way through Arizona and several northern midwestern swing states right now. One huge concern: If this nation survives, and if current trends continue, there may well be a movement for entrenched incumbents in conservative states to use force if necessary to maintain control if voter manipulation fails.

I’m Peter Dekom, and democracy is particularly fragile when large voting blocks feel politically threatened… as American census numbers reflect… stand back and stand by.