EV Catch 24

US Sales & Projected Sales of Battery Electric Vehicles & Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles from EVadoption.com

The sales of EVs in the United States has never been higher, as illustrated by the above chart. California leads the way in all vehicle sales but tops the chart by accounting for a quarter of all US EV sales in the entire nation in 2023. In the fall of 2022, the California Air Resources Board recently approved a rule that would require 100 percent of new light- and medium-duty vehicles sold in the state to be zero emission vehicles by 2035. The board acted under the authority afforded to the state under the federal Clean Air Act. But Houston… and everybody else… we have a problem… actually a lot of problems.

Even the recent UN sponsored COP28 climate conference diluted its call for a ban on fossil fuel-powered vehicles to merely a “transition” to alternative fuels. We have an entire political party dedicated to reversing the emphasis of alternative energy in favor of amping up our production of fossil fuels… and undoing the Biden legislation funding massive construction of charging stations across the country. Level 2 chargers (240 volts) charge in terms of hours, while level 3 chargers (400-900 volts) are really expensive (six figures each without counting the concrete or the power source to the charger) and require cooling systems through the charging cable. Images of crashed self-driving cars, exploding car batteries and tons of recalls have not helped.

So, it’s not surprising that consumers are beginning to have second thoughts, facing barriers of inadequate EV range for road trips, reluctance of landlords to build or even permit their renters to pay for charging capacity in their designated parking space(s), long charging times when they can access charging stations out in the world. Hybrids offer a near-term compromise, but the barriers still exist. For example, I only can charge my hybrid vehicle with 110 volts (takes a full 24 hours) to get 40 miles, even though I have offered my landlord to pay for a 240-volt upgrade.

Urban traffic experts project that congestion on America’s major highways probably cannot be alleviated simply by building and improving the roads themselves – as long as human beings are involved, and the algorithms for relieving gridlock are exceptionally complicated – so that sooner or later, the most efficient use of these most congested highways will require humans to surrender control of their cars to networked computers, the next generation of self-driving cars. But for carmakers, facing the major time required to retool for substantially modified vehicular manufacturing in this transitionary period, the decisions and costs have been hellish.

To make matters worse, all those barriers to owning an EV, and even those with the potential for self-driving, are playing hob with business plans at major US carmakers. Tesla, which dominates the field, never had hybrids or fossil fuel driven cars, but close to their entire fleet faced a recall because of possible defects to the self-driving system. The new United Auto Worker collective bargaining agreement was negotiated with an eye to the easier-to-build (read: less labor) EV vehicle lines, and several major US car companies, like GM, have spent billions to retool their assembly lines for this transition.

Mary Barra, General Motors CEO, began her retooling effort in 2018. The December 16th Wall Street Journal took a good hard look at how these barriers have created those second thoughts at GM: “At a 2018 meeting with a senior team, Chief Executive Mary Barra stunned the room with a sharp U-turn. She killed plans for a new high-end Cadillac that already had gushing reviews from the automotive press… Her reason: the car’s gas-guzzling V-8 engine. Barra, deep into her quest to turn GM into an electric-car powerhouse, decided it would send the wrong message to showcase another splashy Cadillac—the GM brand known for innovation—that leans on fossil-fuel technology.

“Barra was named CEO 10 years ago [as of mid-December] with a mandate to rattle cages. GM was still emerging from its 2009 bankruptcy and the 115-year-old automaker’s plodding corporate culture needed a shaking up—one that Barra, who cracked the glass ceiling with her appointment, could bring… That’s just what she did. But now, the twin engines of her growth strategy—electric vehicles and driverless technology—are stalling out… Barra has stood out among her peers, placing one of the industry’s most decisive bets on EVs and self-driving cars...

“But factory setbacks have prevented the company from getting EVs out the door. The delays disappointed customers and caused the company to squander an opportunity to seize on early enthusiasm for new electric models. Lately, Barra has said that not as many consumers have been willing to make the switch to electric as the company had expected, clouding the future payoff for her EV bet.

“Under Barra, GM has been out in front of many legacy car companies in the race to develop driverless cars. GM spent more than $8 billion investing in the San Francisco driverless startup Cruise. Now, the business, 80% owned by GM, is a costly headache with an uncertain future. Cruise in October pulled about 400 robot taxis off the streets of San Francisco and a handful of other cities after one of its driverless vehicles collided with a pedestrian who had been struck by another car, and dragged her 20 feet. Cruise announced Thursday [12/14] it laid off about one quarter of its workforce…

“‘As you go through a technological transformation like this,” [Barra] said, ‘there’s going to be ups and downs.’… Shares hit a multiyear low last month, but have rallied back since GM disclosed plans in late November for a $10 billion stock buyback, paid for in part by slashing expenditures on EVs and Cruise robotaxis. The stock price is down about 11% from its level when Barra took the top job.” Still, I wouldn’t bet against alternative energy cars and power generation. We’ve already faced trillions of dollars of damages from climate change disasters, with an exponential continued rise expected. Sequentially, we need to eliminate those barriers and fight to maintain a quality of life for us all. It actually is a matter of life and death.

I’m Peter Dekom, and the 2024 election adds “existential survival” against climate change to the choice between democracy and autocracy, making that vote the most important in US history.